TD10 - Storms that have formed very near 15N/45W now-1950.

gkrangers · #1 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 6:33 pm

wxmann_91 · #2 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 6:42 pm

Thanks for the information!

I think Ernesto in 2000 (the first one) might be a good analog to this storm.

CajunMama · #3 Postby **CajunMama** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 7:52 pm

thanks for doing that research gkrangers. it's interesting to see what past storms have done.

gkrangers · #4 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:01 pm

As far as Climo goes with this storm...and as Mr. Climo himself, Don Sutherland will attest too...TD10 stands a better chance of making landfall than Irene did, historically speaking.

But climo is just climo..

TD10 is gonna be another annoying one to follow most likely...given it probably won't strengthen much in the short term...and the track guidance is also going to be difficult.

Right now we're at the point of "well, it either is gonna recurve or it isn't."

mahicks · #5 Postby **mahicks** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:30 pm

GK...Great Post!...

Your right, it doesn't look like a Florida strike to me either...But I still think this ones gonna hit land.

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:37 pm

Here is a map that shows all storms passing within 90NM of that location since the 1850's...

And this map shows the same thing since 1950...

#7 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:39 pm

One of those tracks is our friend Andrew from 1992.

Josephine96 · #8 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:42 pm

LOL.. Following that map makes me nauseated lol

sma10 · #9 Postby **sma10** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:03 pm

Nice map! A little something for everyone!

sma10 · #10 Postby **sma10** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:08 pm

gkrangers wrote:As far as Climo goes with this storm...and as Mr. Climo himself, Don Sutherland will attest too...TD10 stands a better chance of making landfall than Irene did, historically speaking.

But climo is just climo..

TD10 is gonna be another annoying one to follow most likely...given it probably won't strengthen much in the short term...and the track guidance is also going to be difficult.

Right now we're at the point of "well, it either is gonna recurve or it isn't."

The only problem I have with the whole Climo thing is that it almost leads you to believe that the storm is sitting out there holding a calendar and history book.

What I'd really like to know is how many of those systems formed with an unusually strong dipping trough a few miles to its west? That would be helpful. But like Air Force Met was showing us in his map, basically history says this could go anywhere.

gkrangers · #11 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:15 pm

sma10 wrote:
gkrangers wrote:As far as Climo goes with this storm...and as Mr. Climo himself, Don Sutherland will attest too...TD10 stands a better chance of making landfall than Irene did, historically speaking.

But climo is just climo..

TD10 is gonna be another annoying one to follow most likely...given it probably won't strengthen much in the short term...and the track guidance is also going to be difficult.

Right now we're at the point of "well, it either is gonna recurve or it isn't."

The only problem I have with the whole Climo thing is that it almost leads you to believe that the storm is sitting out there holding a calendar and history book.

What I'd really like to know is how many of those systems formed with an unusually strong dipping trough a few miles to its west? That would be helpful. But like Air Force Met was showing us in his map, basically history says this could go anywhere.

Yep..just posting it for the sake of posting it. The current conditions are obviously what will guide this storm. But climo should be considered, to an extent.

And yes...it would be nice to find analogs that had a similar synoptic setup as well...but I'll leave that to the pros.

#12 Postby **LarryWx** » Sun Aug 14, 2005 1:50 am

IF TD #10 has really been moving NW (315 degrees) that far east, it is an easy fish based on climatology. However, I now have serious doubts as to whether or not the primary low has really been moving NW after seeing a naked swirl tonight on the IR loop near 13.5N, 46W! IF that is the true LLC, then that at least gives it some chance to impact the US if it survives the shear. If the true LLC is where the NHC claimed at 11PM, it is a guaranteed fish in my mind, a very easy call based on 154 years of tracks.

TD10 - Storms that have formed very near 15N/45W now-1950.

TD10 - Storms that have formed very near 15N/45W now-1950.

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