Eastern Carib Convection

ConvergenceZone · #1 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:33 pm

Just curious if this has any change of becoming anything? I've been following this little piece of convection ever since it was coming over the islands. There seems to be alot more now. Not jumpiing on the "every convection blob will develop" bandwagon, but just curious if this piece of energy has any chance of getting its act together? I apologize if this has been mentioned in a previous thread already.

nice picture of it here

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/sat ... large.html

Steve H. · #2 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:38 pm

That actually looks quite interesting. Lets see how it looks over the next few days as it goes westward. Maybe another future Invest. MM5 and NOGAPS show development in the western Caribbean - maybe that's the fuel to the fire.

ConvergenceZone · #3 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:42 pm

yep, guess wait and see. Only interested in this one because the piece of energy has held together since it was just east of the islands. It just didn't have near the convection as it does now. It could just be one of those things that's here today and gone tomorrow however. We've seen enough of that already. :wink:

gkrangers · #4 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:46 pm

Carribbean looks a little hostile right now, doesn't it?

KatDaddy · #5 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:51 pm

Not to be bashed by the Joe B bashers

but Joe B indicated this morning we may have W GOM development at the end of next week as this E Caribbean TW moves WNW. Of course as always........we shall see.

WindRunner · #6 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:51 pm

Indeed. The shear is relenting down to 20kts for now, but it isn't low enough for significant development.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

ConvergenceZone · #7 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:52 pm

well you are right, conditions aren't reallly favorable for development in that area right now, but this will be something to watch as it moves into the western Carib over the next few days. There have been plenty of blobs like this that developed after moving into the Western Carib. Of course there have been plenty that haven't as well.

#8 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:03 pm

WOW!!! where did this come from?? just saw it when i got home from work...jb really said that? did he do a video today? this looks halfway descent..

Swimdude · #9 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:46 pm

Putting the blob in motion, it doesn't look too impressive. The only feature to notice at the moment is the explosion in convection. The environment isn't too favorable at the moment. However... As it enters the Gulf... Look at those SST's. Whew!

#10 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:51 pm

There's an upper level low near Jamacia with a wave passing
through the eastern Caribbean. The afternoon sun, plus the ULL,
is enhancing convection. I don't think we'll see this develop into anything
significant.

ConvergenceZone · #11 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:01 pm

dhweather wrote:There's an upper level low near Jamacia with a wave passing
through the eastern Caribbean. The afternoon sun, plus the ULL,
is enhancing convection. I don't think we'll see this develop into anything
significant.

I agree with you. just something to watch as the waves moves towards the western Caribbean, at that point it might be something to watch.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #12 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:16 pm

If this gets into the GOM, things could get interesting with the moisture and ssts.

Kennethb · #13 Postby **Kennethb** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:29 pm

Proximity to TD 10, outflow from Irene, and ULL to the west probably makes this unlikely to develop for now.

I agree that we will need to monitor it through the W Carribean and GOM.

#14 Postby **jeff** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:48 pm

Current convection is the interaction of a westward moving tropical wave and an upper level trough. Conditions are hostile in the upper levels for development, although will become favorable over the W Car. Did note the GFS 850mb winds over the Gulf this upcoming week showing a farily strong wave axis with some closure at the 850mb level.

Swimdude · #15 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:55 pm

Thanks Jeff!

Perhaps it's my un-trained eye, but this wave seems to be moving fairly quickly.

#16 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:02 pm

looks like a descent blob...if it developed that ULL will help it vent very nice...

ROCK · #17 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:12 pm

Kennethb wrote:Proximity to TD 10, outflow from Irene, and ULL to the west probably makes this unlikely to develop for now.

I agree that we will need to monitor it through the W Carribean and GOM.

The water vapor loop tells the story.

I don't think proximity to TD 10 or Irene has anything to do with developement of this convection. Not that Im getting on your case but the convection increase is due to the ULL (southern tip of FL) to its north and the trailing trough through the carib. Combine that with the TW and typical daytime heating you get a blob. It is something to watch but wouldnt expect much to come of it.

WindRunner · #18 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:55 pm

5:30 TWO mentions it. Could be more than we think.

ConvergenceZone · #19 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 5:05 pm

yea, I saw that too. I would have been shocked if they wouldn't mentioned it, as it stands out like a sore thumb. Of course they mentioned that conditions aren't adequate enough for tropical development to occur, but we'll see if that changes in the next few days. At least they mentioned it, that's a start :wink:

wxwatcher91 · #20 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sun Aug 14, 2005 10:04 am

Eastern Carib Convection

Eastern Carib Convection

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