GFS Underdoes the ridge

[Ivanhater]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70422

thats not dt, that is derek ortt

[gkrangers]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70422

That is not DT.

Derek Ortt = Derek Ortt.

DT = Dave Tolleris.

[storms in NC]

sorry about that

[Ivanhater]

well dt will be on tonight for friday night weather fights...so we should hear what his latest thinking is

[jkt21787]

DT has already made hints that he will be bailing on the landfall scenario, though he hasn't made it official yet.

DT will probably end up with a big bust on this one, and he does usually admit to it as well when he does, unlike some others out there.

EDIT: DT just said that he will wait another 24hrs before changing, but after would admit if things don't change, and have a lengthy post about what went wrong, lessons learned, etc.

[shaggy]

irene reminds me of felix sort of with the weird trajectory towards the coast.Not the same but similiar even with the possible loop that some models show.


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199506.asp

[shaggy]

GIV finds more ridging to the north of the system with another ridge coming in to fill in and yet the storm at its meager state is suppose to bulldoze right thru the ridge????????


A shortwave trough has moved eastward off the U.S.
East Coast and a shortwave ridge over the eastern Ohio Valley is
moving eastward to take the place of that trough. In the short term
...This should build or at least maintain the existing ridge to the
north of Irene...which may cause a little more westward motion than
forecast for the next 24 hours or so. After that...all the models
agree that Irene will erode the ridge and move slowly northward
through the ridge between 70-72w longitude...and then turn
east-northeastward by 72 hours. However...given more ridge showing
up in the synoptic dropsonde data...there may be a westward shift
in the 00z model guidance. For this advisory...though...the
official track will remain close to the previous forecast track


leaves more questions than answers if you ask me.like how much of a shift to the left might the models make?

[jkt21787]

leaves more questions than answers if you ask me.like how much of a shift to the left might the models make?

Yes the big question in tonight's model runs will be how much of a shift occurs. This should pretty much solidify what happens.

[djtil]

i doubt the models shift much

[JamesFromMaine2]

djtil why do you think the models will shift much? Theres a bigger redge extending farther to the west new SC or NC so why wouldn't the shift much?

[Air Force Met]

it does provide somewhat less confidence in a turn as early as they are indicating

That was about my forecast...I said earlier in the day that my path was about 1 degree west of the 5PM track...out to about 72-73 west. With it slowing...I may be a little too far west as it will give the ridge time to be eroded.