GFS Underdoes the ridge

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/images/heights.gif


this was a 0Z garp image comparing the obs vs the 6 hour forecast of GFS. Seems like it still cannot get a ridge correct

[shaggy]

so if it under estimates the ridge should the gfdl and models that run off the GFS be wrong in such a sharp turn NE?

[Derek Ortt]

it does provide somewhat less confidence in a turn as early as they are indicating

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like if that ridge where not to weaken at all. This system would go north or north-northwest for another 3 or 4 degrees. Then turn west-northwest on the back side of it.

[Ivanhater]

derek take a look at this and please explain, you can see the due south sinking motion to the north of irene, making you think that she is under the ridge but you can also see the convection over the center move due north at the end.....i just dont understand

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[deltadog03]

thats actually a pretty strong ridge...590 line is well inland and not too mention the ridge to the north...hmmm thanks derek

[Derek Ortt]

dont go by the lines, those are GFS lines, which are too weak.

the convection is rotating around the center

[deltadog03]

ok, thanks...well, that looks fairly strong anyway, and if there underdone we have a problem

[Ivanhater]

dont go by the lines, those are GFS lines, which are too weak.

the convection is rotating around the center

but did you see the due south sinking motion just to the north of irene, doesnt that mean the ridge is on top of it, or at least a pretty strong ridge or no? thanks

[Derek Ortt]

it means we do have a decent ridge north of irene... writing the new forecast now

[Ivanhater]

it means we do have a decent ridge north of irene... writing the new forecast now

dang it , i thought i was seeing it right...thanks so much

[mahicks]

And this means>?????

[Nimbus]

The convection has been expanding quite rapidly.
I've been watching the area south of the Carolinas start to fill in.
That ULL pushing north into Mississippi is kind of pushing up the western side of the ridge.

Hope it migrates east toward the coast later in the forecast.

[du1st]

[quote="Nimbus"]The convection has been expanding quite rapidly.
I've been watching the area south of the Carolinas start to fill in.
That ULL pushing north into Mississippi is kind of pushing up the western side of the ridge.

What would that mean?

[shaggy]

this is why my concern has been growing today since the ridge looked stronger and seemed to be sinking southward on WV imagery.Not sure what to think at the moment because NHC has been consistent in their forecast so no reason to doubt them just yet


also shouldn't the swift West to east zonal flow over the NE thats moving off the coast help to strengthen the ridge derek?

[du1st]

opps my bad sorry.

[storms in NC]

DT's update is up

[djtil]

consensus

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200509_model.html

[CronkPSU]

DT's update is up

link for us who are new? i have heard his name mentioned a lot lately as someone who is trusted

[storms in NC]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70422