Irene 0z Models: Moving WNW at 9mph, Pressure 990mb

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Thunder44
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Irene 0z Models: Moving WNW at 9mph, Pressure 990mb

#1 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:24 pm

380
WHXX01 KWBC 130013
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050813 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 0000 050813 1200 050814 0000 050814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.8N 67.8W 30.0N 69.3W 31.5N 70.7W 33.3N 71.0W
BAMM 28.8N 67.8W 29.8N 69.2W 31.0N 70.3W 32.5N 70.7W
A98E 28.8N 67.8W 29.4N 69.2W 30.9N 70.5W 32.6N 71.1W
LBAR 28.8N 67.8W 29.7N 69.3W 30.8N 70.7W 31.9N 71.7W
SHIP 60KTS 64KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 60KTS 64KTS 65KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 0000 050816 0000 050817 0000 050818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.9N 70.1W 35.9N 65.9W 34.5N 63.7W 34.0N 63.0W
BAMM 33.8N 70.3W 34.9N 67.4W 34.1N 65.5W 33.7N 64.2W
A98E 33.9N 71.0W 35.3N 69.5W 35.7N 66.7W 37.8N 60.4W
LBAR 33.1N 71.9W 35.0N 70.8W 36.9N 68.5W 38.2N 64.6W
SHIP 66KTS 65KTS 62KTS 57KTS
DSHP 66KTS 65KTS 62KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.8N LONCUR = 67.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 28.0N LONM12 = 66.4W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 26.3N LONM24 = 63.8W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 50NM

Moving at 295 Degrees now. But models still show recurvature.
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#2 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:31 pm

Wow, and ships peaks at 66kts. 990mb should mean upgrade at 11.
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#3 Postby shaggy » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:38 pm

whens the next recon into the storm?
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#4 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:40 pm

WindRunner wrote:Wow, and ships peaks at 66kts. 990mb should mean upgrade at 11.

No, I seriously doubt it, since estimated winds remain at 60kt and recon has not found any higher. There won't be an upgrade until recon is there most likely unless there are obvious signs its a hurricane beforehand.
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#5 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:47 pm

Also, if they were going to classify it as a hurricane at 11 PM, the header would say Hurricane, not Tropical Storm.

Given that there is no recon until 2 AM (or so) and the SSD and AFWA estimates were 3.5 and 3.0 respectively (4.0 is a hurricane), there isn't anything to justify an upgrade.
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#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:48 pm

Where did they get the 990 millibars?
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#7 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:53 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Where did they get the 990 millibars?


no clue... trying to figure that out myself... maybe they're modeling at the 990mb mark.. probably a couple miles high... that would account for the winds too :lol:
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#8 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:56 pm

It's funny that pressure is estimated to be 7mb lower, but with no wind increase. While earlier with recon, we found that pressure was actually 997mb, 3mb higher than the estimated 994mb at the 11am advisory, but they raised the winds at the 5pm advisory.
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#9 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:59 pm

Shouldn't recon be in and through at/around/before 11?
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#10 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:59 pm

And the bad thing here is that all of these take their geopotential heights from the 6 hour forecast of the GFS... see Derek's 'GFS Underdoes the Ridge post' for why that is bad...
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#11 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:01 pm

WindRunner wrote:Shouldn't recon be in and through at/around/before 11?


Nope

FLIGHT THREE
A. 13/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A IRENE
C. 13/0115Z
D. 27.9N 68.3W
E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Scheduled to take off at 9:15 PM EDT and make a fix at 2 AM EDT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?
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