Irene Recon Reports

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#101 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:47 pm

86 mph/75 knots flight level with 65 knots est at the surface. Can we say it or not?
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#102 Postby yoda » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:50 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:86 mph/75 knots flight level with 65 knots est at the surface. Can we say it or not?

No. It is a Tropical Storm now.
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#103 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:50 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:86 mph/75 knots flight level with 65 knots est at the surface. Can we say it or not?


Depends on who's on duty, I would think. The 65 knot estimated surface is probably from visual sea state observations by the flight meteorologist. Some of them seem to favor that, others don't. 75 knots flight level reduces to (rounded up) 70 mph... I will say it gets held at TS this advisory... but we'll see...
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#104 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:50 pm

UZNT13 KNHC 122040
XXAA 62208 99285 70672 07987 99997 26603 30016 00526 ///// /////
92662 22801 29515 85399 21229 28007 88999 77999
31313 09608 82022
61616 AF307 0109A IRENE OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 2851N06721W 2024 MBL WND 30516 AEV 20507 DLM WND 29
514 997862 WL150 30516 075 =
XXBB 62208 99285 70672 07987 00997 26603 11898 21604 22850 21229
33843 20421
21212 00997 30016 11955 30516 22867 27511 33862 29011 44843 26004
31313 09608 82022
61616 AF307 0109A IRENE OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 2851N06721W 2024 MBL WND 30516 AEV 20507 DLM WND 29
514 997862 WL150 30516 075 =

Eye dropsonde with 997mb, 16 knot winds
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#105 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:51 pm

May not be for long if more data like that comes in. Even slightly higher. :roll:
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#106 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:51 pm

And so we have another 6 hours of TS Irene . . .
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#107 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:52 pm

Observation Number: 16
Time transmitted: 2040Z
Sea level Pressure: 997 millibars
Surface Temperature/ Dewpoint Depression: 26.6/0.3
Surface winds: 16 knots // 300
925 millibar height: 662 meters
925 millibar temperature/DD: 28.8/0.1
925 millibar winds: 15 knots // 295
850 millibar height: 1399 meters
850 millibar temperature/DD: 21.2/2.9
850 millibar winds: 7 knots // 280
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#108 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:57 pm

Avila is using the reduction method from winds at 850mb. 80% of 75kts is about 60kts or 70mph at the surface.
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Grrrr

#109 Postby curtinnc » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:05 pm

This is frustrating... splitting hairs now I think...
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#110 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:16 pm

According to the POD, that should be it for this mission....next plane scheduled to launch at 0115Z to enter the storm at around 0500Z and make a fix at 0600Z (2 AM EDT) or so...
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#111 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:24 pm

Without a pressure drop no way for hurricane.
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#112 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:53 pm

RU4REAL wrote:is it 8 or 80 :grrr:


I am as confussed as a poot in a spacesuit :eek:


It's 80 miles across, not 8. You could clearly see the large center on satellite this morning. But I don't think it's a true eye, like would be expected in the center of a hurricane, it's just a large ring of convection. If it's going to intensify, it'll have to lose that big ring of convection and form a tighter center.

I've identified this large center on the satellite below:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene88.gif
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#113 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:58 pm

It's easier to see on the Windsat pass:

(sorry for the picture, NRL deletes pages quickly and I wanted this to stay)

Image

However, it is a little smaller than what it appeared like during the recon.
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#114 Postby shaggy » Fri Aug 12, 2005 6:00 pm

bet if recon dropped a dropsonde into that flare up it would come back even higher with the winds and lower with the pressures
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#115 Postby djtil » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:21 pm

lower with the pressures


of course not.
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#116 Postby sponger » Fri Aug 12, 2005 10:48 pm

That is a awesome picture wind runner!
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#117 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 13, 2005 12:45 am

0531. 2921N 06754W 01525 5018 212 068 172 168 069 01538 0000000000
0532 2920N 06753W 01525 5010 214 068 170 154 069 01546 0000000000

69kts at flight level in the SE Quad.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#118 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 13, 2005 12:48 am

It doe's not look as strong on satellite then earlier today.
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#119 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 13, 2005 12:56 am

287
URNT12 KNHC 130552
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/05:26:50Z
B. 29 deg 30 min N
068 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1409 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 010 deg 042 kt
G. 284 deg 033 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 16 C/ 1522 m
J. 20 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 0309A IRENE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 05:16:50

Pressure is higher, she maybe weaker. I think I'm going to back to bed, not to get excited about.
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gkrangers

#120 Postby gkrangers » Sat Aug 13, 2005 12:57 am

287
URNT12 KNHC 130552
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/05:26:50Z
B. 29 deg 30 min N
068 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1409 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 010 deg 042 kt
G. 284 deg 033 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 16 C/ 1522 m
J. 20 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 0309A IRENE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 05:16:50
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