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#161 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:14 pm

KWT wrote:Hi AFM,great post there and it is all true,however just a quick question,why do mention teenagers like you do???
Just seems like your being a tad sterotypical to me,not all teenagers like a arguement like some would think.

I do agree with what your saying mind,just abit curious thats all! :wink:

(ps,I don't want a storm to hit anywhere,simply due to the horror they can cause,even strong tropical storms can be a problem.)


He said it makes a difference "sometimes". I dont think he said anywhere in this post that all teenagers are.

<RICKY>
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#162 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:15 pm

bmoreorless wrote:Great stuff, AFM, both the forecasting and the insight to your work.

Question -- what does the slowing mean for the forecast track? Does it make Irene more or less likely to recurve?


A slower track means nothing right now...it's all a matter of time with the ridge building in. I think that once the GIV data gets into the models that we will have a better handle on it. I do believe it is going to recurve...but I think it's closest approach to the N Carolina may warrent watches at some point. A lot of the final recurve depends on if the ridge builds in strong to the E or SE side. If it's east...it will move closer to the coast. If it's SE...it will curve further from the coast. I like the NHC track right now...I maybe a degree or so west of there...but close
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#163 Postby New Englander » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:17 pm

Air Force Met, What do you think the chances of this effecting New England are? Thanks.
Last edited by New Englander on Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#164 Postby Mac » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:17 pm

KWT wrote:Hi AFM,great post there and it is all true,however just a quick question,why do mention teenagers like you do???
Just seems like your being a tad sterotypical to me,not all teenagers like a arguement like some would think.

I do agree with what your saying mind,just abit curious thats all! :wink:

(ps,I don't want a storm to hit anywhere,simply due to the horror they can cause,even strong tropical storms can be a problem.)


I'm not answering for AFM here...only myself.

Just as we watch model trends to make predictions about what hurricanes are likely to do, people naturally do this same thing when making other observations--such as observing people.

As a general rule, teenagers lack social experience that tells them when they should or should not say something, or how to say certain things without overtly offending people. It's not an insult. It's just that they lack experience to tell them otherwise. Experience comes with time, and usually from being embarassed when you get called out on the carpet for what you've said. Not all teenagers behave in this fashion. Some are mature beyond their meager years. But teenagers--as a group--definitely show a trend towards this type of social behavior.

Consider this--

There are most definitely innocent men sitting on death row. But that doesn't mean you'd turn your back on them unless you knew them quite well. :wink:
Last edited by Mac on Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#165 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:18 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
bmoreorless wrote:Great stuff, AFM, both the forecasting and the insight to your work.

Question -- what does the slowing mean for the forecast track? Does it make Irene more or less likely to recurve?


A slower track means nothing right now...it's all a matter of time with the ridge building in. I think that once the GIV data gets into the models that we will have a better handle on it. I do believe it is going to recurve...but I think it's closest approach to the N Carolina may warrent watches at some point. A lot of the final recurve depends on if the ridge builds in strong to the E or SE side. If it's east...it will move closer to the coast. If it's SE...it will curve further from the coast. I like the NHC track right now...I maybe a degree or so west of there...but close


It might be SE cause we have had a lot of SE winds this summer. I know this cause I alway look at the winds when I go fishing.
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#166 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:18 pm

KWT wrote:Hi AFM,great post there and it is all true,however just a quick question,why do mention teenagers like you do???
Just seems like your being a tad sterotypical to me,not all teenagers like a arguement like some would think.

I do agree with what your saying mind,just abit curious thats all! :wink:

(ps,I don't want a storm to hit anywhere,simply due to the horror they can cause,even strong tropical storms can be a problem.)


Let's just say "youthful enthusiasm" and that I was once one of those type of teens. A weather nut (of course there was no internet back then...we didn't even have TWC)...and I wanted every storm to head towards us. I don't make the post as a slight against teens...just that it makes a BIG difference in what you post when you've got a lifetime of experiences behind you and that allows you to see things a little differently.
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#167 Postby weatherwoman » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:18 pm

thank you for your answer, I guess we should still keep a close eye out for it, I've seen some post that have said NC is out of the woods, But I keep watching
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#168 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:19 pm

First of all the reason i want this storm to hit me is because i love huricanes and this probably won't be any stronger than cat 1 or cat 2 if it did hit us. I am 15 and i have been through many hurricanes and most recently Isabel in 2003. I realize life and property are at risk in these type of storms but it is my love for the strongest storm on earth that makes me want to experience more and more of them to learn about them and record them. And come on its not that strong so don't yell at me just for wanting to learn more so i can continue my dream of becoming a Hurricane expert and once im old enough i will chase them so i don't have to wait for one to hit my home. There so i hope i made a very good point at that i don't wish harm on anyone and that i just want to experience them to learn more about them.
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#169 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:20 pm

New Englander wrote:Air Force Met, What do you think the chances of this effecting New England are? Thanks.


Very small chance. The ridge setup is not what is needed for a hit there.
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#170 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:22 pm

heres the new location from the newest vortex message 28.5°N 67.2°W
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#171 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:23 pm

Fair enough AFM and Mac,thats all true and I'm not going to say that it isn't.Anyway,we are going of topic here,lets go back to talking about the storms direction!!!
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#172 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:24 pm

ThunderMate wrote:First of all the reason i want this storm to hit me is because i love huricanes and this probably won't be any stronger than cat 1 or cat 2 if it did hit us. I am 15 and i have been through many hurricanes and most recently Isabel in 2003. I realize life and property are at risk in these type of storms but it is my love for the strongest storm on earth that makes me want to experience more and more of them to learn about them and record them. And come on its not that strong so don't yell at me just for wanting to learn more so i can continue my dream of becoming a Hurricane expert and once im old enough i will chase them so i don't have to wait for one to hit my home. There so i hope i made a very good point at that i don't wish harm on anyone and that i just want to experience them to learn more about them.


all i have to say to that is, after going through Andrew in 1992 at the age of 8, I never wanna see a single hurricane come by South Florida never never never again. Be careful what you wish for dude cause when it really really comes time to deal with the Big Boys of the hurricanes, your gonna really regret it. My family lost EVERYTHING in Andrew. boy oh boy

<RICKY>
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#173 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:25 pm

ThunderMate wrote:First of all the reason i want this storm to hit me is because i love huricanes and this probably won't be any stronger than cat 1 or cat 2 if it did hit us. I am 15 and i have been through many hurricanes and most recently Isabel in 2003. I realize life and property are at risk in these type of storms but it is my love for the strongest storm on earth that makes me want to experience more and more of them to learn about them and record them. And come on its not that strong so don't yell at me just for wanting to learn more so i can continue my dream of becoming a Hurricane expert and once im old enough i will chase them so i don't have to wait for one to hit my home. There so i hope i made a very good point at that i don't wish harm on anyone and that i just want to experience them to learn more about them.


Well I can tell you first hand it is not fun. Floyd wasn't bad in wind But I still lost my home to the floods. Leaving your home in a baot is not fun. I and seeing the old people lose theirs was worse than loseing my own. Some of them in their 80's and 90's. That was bad to see.
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#174 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:25 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:heres the new location from the newest vortex message 28.5°N 67.2°W


OK...that's 4 minutes north and 7 minutes west...or 300 degrees.

Does this settle the debate?
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#175 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:25 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:all i have to say to that is, after going through Andrew in 1992 at the age of 8, I never wanna see a single hurricane come by South Florida never never never again. Be careful what you wish for dude cause when it really really comes time to deal with the Big Boys of the hurricanes, your gonna really regret it. My family lost EVERYTHING in Andrew. boy oh boy

<RICKY>

Though I've never gone through a hurricane, my thoughts are along the same line as yours. Be careful what you wish for...
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#176 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:28 pm

well what are the chances now for a landfall?
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#177 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:29 pm

You can see the shortwave pushing ESE out into the north Atlantic, but the trough has also tilted WSW to ENE. This really is a tight call on the pivot point for any ridge located above Irene.

As usual after many hours of figuring this out, NHC looks reasonable.

One cool thing about Florida is I stepped outside just now and there's tall thin thunderhead booming to the east in the bright sun and humid air.
Last edited by Sanibel on Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#178 Postby jrod » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:29 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Why do you WANT it to hit land? That's a pretty sick question. Why would ANYONE want it to hit land except they are demented and really don't care about others or their property.

Go stand at a mirror and ask yourself why you don't want it to go out to sea. To ask someone why they don't want it to hit land implies that you do want it to. That's sad.



I got to add something to this. A lot of 'die hard' Floridians want more hurricanes this year. The reason is property prices keep rising and they fear only the very wealthy will be able to afford property in the near future if the trend continues, also the population keeps getting bigger and more people keep moving here so their logic is another year or two with hurricanes all over the state and Florida will not be a hot piece of real estate and some will even move away.

Aslo the East Coast of the state has not had an extremley bad hurricane since Andrew and I feel that we are overdue. Not that I want one that is just how I feel.
Last edited by jrod on Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#179 Postby jrod » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:31 pm

Back to the topic, Florida is seeing a nice small swell and that should only increase in the next few days.
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#180 Postby Mac » Fri Aug 12, 2005 3:31 pm

ThunderMate wrote:First of all the reason i want this storm to hit me is because i love huricanes and this probably won't be any stronger than cat 1 or cat 2 if it did hit us. I am 15 and i have been through many hurricanes and most recently Isabel in 2003. I realize life and property are at risk in these type of storms but it is my love for the strongest storm on earth that makes me want to experience more and more of them to learn about them and record them. And come on its not that strong so don't yell at me just for wanting to learn more so i can continue my dream of becoming a Hurricane expert and once im old enough i will chase them so i don't have to wait for one to hit my home. There so i hope i made a very good point at that i don't wish harm on anyone and that i just want to experience them to learn more about them.


There is nothing wrong with appreciating the awesome power of mother nature, and wanting to see hurricanes in action. But you should at least try to understand that these storm affect people in some very bad ways.

Even category 1 or 2 hurricanes can cause loss of life, great destruction of property, economic hardship, etc. Look at what Tropical Storm Emily did earlier this year, for example. It is probably hard for you to understand the consequences of the devestation these storms cause because you have not yet had to deal with the consequences yourself. Even if your parents have had to deal with consequences from these storms--it was they who had to deal with the consequences, rather than you.

Perhaps you might better understand it if you consider this analogy--

You are 15, which means you've had around 9 years of schooling thus far. Imagine if one day a category 1 hurricane hit where you live and, as a result of the damage it caused, somebody came up to you and said, "We're really sorry, but you've just lost all of your education. You now have to start over at kindergarten."

That's what happens to people financially from these storms. They lose years of savings. They lose things they've worked their entire lives to obtain. And they have to start over. Some will never recover. And that's only considering the personal financial loss. There's worse factors to consider, such as loss of life.

That's why it's better to appreciate these storms at a distance, and to never wish them to hit land. You probably won't truly understand this unless you are one day affected yourself by such loss.
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