west movement

#101 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:00 pm

Position of the center: 28° 27' N 067° 05' W (28.4°N 67.1°W

at 11:00 Am it was 28.3 N and 66.8 W

#102 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:01 pm

so WNW?

#103 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:01 pm

hmmmm...thats just about DUE WEST FOLKS

was that top coord from recon?

#104 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:02 pm

#105 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:02 pm

I expect a big left shift in the tracks at 5 by the NHC

#106 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:02 pm

deltadog03 wrote:hmmmm...thats just about DUE WEST FOLKS

was that top coord from recon?

yes it was.

#107 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:07 pm

thanks...thank god we got a clear coord....and that is almost due west...im not buying 300 or whatever...thats like 280 at best since 11am

#108 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:09 pm

The NHC will have to shift the track W and stop relying on their models which have mislead them for most of Irene's tracking. It was not supposed to move this much W today...

#109 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:15 pm

your right...there gonna have to do something

Steve H. · #110 Postby **Steve H.** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:16 pm

Wait a minute. That is only the difference between the NHC estimated position and the real position. NHC could have been off a bit when they estimated. We need to see what the postion is in a few hours, then compare. I thought I saw them report that it was moving 315 degrees. I would find that hard to believe, but hey, they're in the plane!! Seems more westerly than that to me!! :roll:

#111 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:16 pm

deltadog03 wrote:thanks...thank god we got a clear coord....and that is almost due west...im not buying 300 or whatever...thats like 280 at best since 11am

It is NOT due west. It's 297...which is pretty darn close to the 300 I thought it was...and 4 degrees off of being NW.

Again...the diff between the advisory position and recon is 297...which is a LOT closer to NW than it is west.

#112 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:17 pm

how do you figure?? .1N and .3W...regardless..so, this dosn't really matter? how will the models respond that now we have a clear center coord

#113 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:22 pm

deltadog03 wrote:how do you figure?? .1N and .4W...

I've got a FEMA tool (read: Government software) that measures it so there is no guessing. It measures it down to the 1/100th of a degree....and the coords from recon...as I put them into the system were 28.45N / 67.08 west. The output is 17NM (20 statute miles) on a 297 bearing. You are rounding off and that is not the way it's don. It's 28.45...not 28.4...and 67.08...not 67.1....and those little differences makes the difference of saying it is 297. But even if I round it off and input 28.4/67.1...it's still not 280...It's 287...but again...that's not right because you aren't accounting for the other .05 and .02...which makes it 297.

bmoreorless · #114 Postby **bmoreorless** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:25 pm

As every move to the West incites some people to claim that the NHC is way off and the SC/NC are now in the crosshairs, I just want to re-emphasize the most recent forecast discussion:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLING FOR IRENE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 48-72 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT LEFT TURN DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR IN ANTICIPATION OF RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

Repeat, the NHC said there would a "slight left turn" through 36-48 hours. And in fact, we are seeing a slight (maybe very slight) left turn. What's the big deal?

#115 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:28 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:how do you figure?? .1N and .4W...

I've got a FEMA tool (read: Government software) that measures it so there is no guessing. It measures it down to the 1/100th of a degree....and the coords from recon...as I put them into the system were 28.45N / 67.08 west. The output is 17NM (20 statute miles) on a 297 bearing. You are rounding off and that is not the way it's don. It's 28.45...not 28.4...and 67.08...not 67.1....and those little differences makes the difference of saying it is 297. But even if I round it off and input 28.4/67.1...it's still not 280...It's 287...but again...that's not right because you aren't accounting for the other .05 and .02...which makes it 297.

Boy you pros are good... thanks for that data reference.... and thanks for your support on the board...

#116 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:28 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:how do you figure?? .1N and .4W...

I've got a FEMA tool (read: Government software) that measures it so there is no guessing. It measures it down to the 1/100th of a degree....and the coords from recon...as I put them into the system were 28.45N / 67.08 west. The output is 17NM (20 statute miles) on a 297 bearing. You are rounding off and that is not the way it's don. It's 28.45...not 28.4...and 67.08...not 67.1....and those little differences makes the difference of saying it is 297. But even if I round it off and input 28.4/67.1...it's still not 280...It's 287...but again...that's not right because you aren't accounting for the other .05 and .02...which makes it 297.

ok, well i am not going to argue with you....turn on the floter and the tropical forecast plots...is the center just south of the hurricane 1 symbol?? anyone plz look if you can...tell me what yall think?

Sanibel · #117 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:30 pm

No. I'm sure now it is definitely more west.

ThunderMate · #118 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:32 pm

yes i see it just south of the forcast plot

#119 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:32 pm

agreeeeed...

#120 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:34 pm

I also want to add that as of right now...Irene is a WHOLE 2 MILES south of the official track.

So she is on course...per the NHC track. I know that is not what a bunch of you want to hear...but that's what it is. She's a little slower than the track...she should be about 20 miles further NW...but as far as direction goes...she is 2 miles south of the track. Anybody wanna complain about 2 miles and call for a massive track shift now?

west movement

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