west movement

Frank2 · #81 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:37 pm

Re: RU4REAL's post

First, this is Frank2 (hello to Frank P - us Franks have to stick together).

Since I don't imbibe, that's not the issue - as my above namesake mentioned, Irene is right on track per the forecast, and is somewhere between WNW and NW (the TCD mentioned 305).

Sorry folks,

Frank

Thunder44 · #82 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:38 pm

dwg71 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:It's looks WNW to me. But the eye looks like it wobbling a bit over the last few hours.

eye???

Yes, a ragged eye. I think this probably a Cat 1 hurricane. It has the look of hurricanes I've seen before. Can't wait for recon to confirm it.

RU4REAL · #83 Postby **RU4REAL** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:41 pm

it is as you have commanded...

Frank2 · #84 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:45 pm

Re: DESTRUCTION5's post

Re:

Frank is in denial alot and I think he may throw a few back some days but he's right today...Its moving right on course...

Talk about your backhanded compliment!

Denial? No more than most my age, though someone needs to be here to hose down the -removed- from time to time!

Frank

#85 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:45 pm

boca_chris wrote:check out the this loop with the NHC forecast points superimposed on Irene...it's going farther west of the forecast track by the minute:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Actually, the center is precisely on the NHC track. The center is on the eastern side of the convection. You're being fooled by the westward-moving cirrus clouds..

JamesFromMaine2 · #86 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:48 pm

Ok I could be wrong about this but looking at Sat images it looks to me like is moving west with MAYBE a little north movement! Now it does look like the western edge is expanding out away from the center so that could be why it looks to be moving west but looking at the whole system it also looks to be moving west so I guess only time will tell! Also in the last few frames it does look like there COULD be a eye forming but I am also unsure about that as well I guess all the questions will be answered once recon gets in there!

#87 Postby **CronkPSU** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:check out the this loop with the NHC forecast points superimposed on Irene...it's going farther west of the forecast track by the minute:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Actually, the center is precisely on the NHC track. The center is on the eastern side of the convection. You're being fooled by the westward-moving cirrus clouds..

it definitely was earlier, looked like they change their tracking points because it didn't have cat 1 level on their earlier this morning

Sanibel · #88 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:54 pm

There's no argument about it. Irene has pulled west and slowed.

This will take her closer to favorable waters.

I guess experienced storm watchers are waiting to see if this is a bump and the NW track resumes.

I'm not going to hystericast until I study today's synoptic, but a west track towards what is west of this position comes to mind.

One of the weenies predicted this last night on his amateur map and took flak for it.

RU4REAL · #89 Postby **RU4REAL** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:55 pm

Okay' guys I toss my hands in the air and humbley say I'm sorry, as I said before I'm learning, I'll be the first to admit I don't undstand alot of this stuff but I'm trying and it still looks west to me...so I"ll chalk this up to a lesson learned..

have fun ya'll I'm going to buy ice..

#90 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:57 pm

its not DUE WEST...but, its around 280 i agree

Sanibel · #91 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:08 pm

On further review the center is actually probably bumping north in a stall.

But what you have to worry about is what took the convection west and flattened it.

The synoptic looks like a weak trapping scenario. The kind that produces a crazy looping track

As Mike18xx already knows, those calling for a ridge to send storms west have busted this year.

The trough doesn't really look like a trough anymore but more like a stationary border.

I can only guess at a stall, maybe turn right towards recurve but after that it could get weird and Irene could travel around out there if it doesn't get sent out to sea...

#92 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:11 pm

Sanibel wrote:There's no argument about it. Irene has pulled west and slowed.

This will take her closer to favorable waters.

I guess experienced storm watchers are waiting to see if this is a bump and the NW track resumes.

I'm not going to hystericast until I study today's synoptic, but a west track towards what is west of this position comes to mind.

One of the weenies predicted this last night on his amateur map and took flak for it.

would you take a look at this and tell me if the is the eye or not?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

Normandy · #93 Postby **Normandy** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:12 pm

Yes im wondering if thats the center also.

JamesFromMaine2 · #94 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:13 pm

it looks like it but who knows! lol

dwg71 · #95 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:15 pm

The center (I think) is due east of that spot. On shortwave floater, you can see it better.

#96 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:20 pm

You guys are looking at the illusion of the cirrus moving west. Look at a 30 frame hi-res loop off the GHCC (and speed it up) and you can see the center moving WNW-NW. It's not moving at 330...but it's not 270 either. Same thing happened yesterday when the cirrus was being blown north.

The 30 frame loop is 4 hours long...take a look at the center. Looks to me like it is moving at 300-305....but it is still very close to the NHC track (you can see that on the SSD vis loop with the forecast track overlay). It might be a little west of there...but if it had been moving west all this time it would be 60 -100 miles west of there. It's pretty close right now and so it's on track.

Sanibel · #97 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:25 pm

Yes but the WV loop shows the whole system being curved left up and over the mild ULL to its south. That ULL is moving west underneath a steering influence. That influence could be the ridge.

Not an eye. The ULL is still keeping it down. The west Atlantic has been too hostile to support storms.

x-y-no · #98 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:28 pm

Air Force Met wrote:You guys are looking at the illusion of the cirrus moving west. Look at a 30 frame hi-res loop off the GHCC (and speed it up) and you can see the center moving WNW-NW. It's not moving at 330...but it's not 270 either. Same thing happened yesterday when the cirrus was being blown north.

The 30 frame loop is 4 hours long...take a look at the center. Looks to me like it is moving at 300-305....but it is still very close to the NHC track (you can see that on the SSD vis loop with the forecast track overlay). It might be a little west of there...but if it had been moving west all this time it would be 60 -100 miles west of there. It's pretty close right now and so it's on track.

Yeah ... earlier this morning it wobbled to about 280 for a while, but the average is around 300 I think.

#99 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:48 pm

Well at least the Franks (nice name Frank2) were in agreement... hehe....

I've taken the position that its been pretty much moving 300 to 310 degrees since about 10:30 am CDT... sat loop can and are deceiving at times esp without a discernable center to track... I've been watching them for a long time and still get fooled... but not this time... :eek:

#100 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:58 pm

all of this arguing...it's quite amusing...I say it's moving WNWWNW. lol.

west movement

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