JB concerned Irene could get trapped under ridge

[N2FSU]

I know, I know..it's Bastardi... but a very interesting discussion none the less:

http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html

[weatherwoman]

hey i think bastardi makes good points and he is good at what he does

[RU4REAL]

your' right, I listened to him this morning and he does make some very interesting points, like him or not, he knows his stuff...I'm waiting for recon...

[jax]

hey i think bastardi makes good points and he is good at what he does

he's usually right...

[Derecho]

hey i think bastardi makes good points and he is good at what he does

he's usually right...

ROFLMAO.

Btw, is "Concerned" about something a forecast? He was "concerned" that Dennis would hit New Orleans and "concerned" that Emily could hit Texas.

[storms in NC]

Well I don't like him But I have to say he made good sense on his forecast.
Not saying it will happen we just have to wait.

[SouthFloridawx]

At least he says it's possible and things are possible and maybe people will prepare a little bit so that in case it does happen they are prepared?.?. Just like when certain forcasters say that certain hurricanes thought it was a certainty that the storm would go to tampa and it did not. Everyone thinks different things may happen and it's just good for people to prepare for them....








http://www.recmod.com/hurricane/hurricane2004.html

[bucman1]

Can someone summarize what joe says I can't pull up the video-Thanks

[x-y-no]

Well I'm not going to argue with his reasoning regarding the ridge - I've been looking at the same ensembles and thinking along similar lines.

Once again, I could have done without the jabs at NHC, but we all know his agenda, so that stuff isn't surprising, just disappointing.

Regarding recon - yeah, sure, I would have liked to see recon out there yesterday too. But the fact is that while not having that data may annoy us weather geeks, it's not especially meaningful in terms of NHC's mission, because Irene is still days away from threatening land.

Jan

[x-y-no]

Can someone summarize what joe says I can't pull up the video-Thanks

OK ... let's see ...

Basically, we're headed into a more active Atlantic phase, as the MJO progresses (evidence - declining activity in WPAC, increased activity in EPAC, African wave train firing up again). Meanwhile, the long-term ensemble means show a significant positive mid-level height anomaly in the north Atlantic, which implies lower heights in the MDR and thus more cyclogenesis.

Regarding Irene, he thinks the ridge to the NE of her will retrograde, pushing her towards the coast. He also raised the possibilty of her stalling and the ridge building over the top, forcing her towards NC.

Pointed out favorable upper-air conditions for intensification, said she could get to Cat 3.

Jan

[bucman1]

Jan,
Thanks so much for the summary,its greatly apprecitated-Have a great
day.

Bucman1-Craig

[djtil]

why is he ALWAYS concerned about the scenario that keeps people more interested. coincidence?

[Steve]

>>why is he ALWAYS concerned about the scenario that keeps people more interested. coincidence?

LOL dig. I hear what you're saying.
-------------------------------------------
I haven't watched the video today, but the idea that Irene could get caught (like our other fish have so far this season), isn't far fetched. The trend has been to hold them under a weaker regime before they shunted off to the NE or ENE. The precedent for 2005 is there.

Steve

[Blown Away]

His maps don't reflect that!!

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=0

[Steve]

Blown_away - "His" maps aren't Accuweather's official maps. There is (or at least used to be) a specific disclaimer on all of Joe B's columns that the views posted are his own and do not necessarily reflect the company's opinion(s) therein.

/setting the record straight

Steve

[du1st]

the king of hype strikes again! He does have a point today though.