WATS UP - Irene Special Edition - August 12, 2005

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This product is solely to express my thoughts on Tropical Storm Irene.
I'll cover the normal WATS/GUTS/EATS later today.


<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/iss01.jpg">

I know, lots of colors and confusion in that map, but lets dig our way
through it. I'm using the Northwest Atlantic GOES satellite shot
so that I can explain and show the factors that will determine
Irene's future path.

The upper level lows - one in the Bahamas, moving SW and weakening,
and another moving N inland over the AL/FL area should not have
much, if any influence on the path or strength of TS Irene.

A strong shortwave is moving off the NE US coast, and there is a strong
zonal flow from west to east behind this. This shortwave is creating a
weakness in the subtropical ridge, and is eroding the ridge. While the
ridge will build back in over the next few days, it will allow Irene to
gain more of a northerly component in her travels.

Notice there's less orange air around Irene - that means less dry air,
which will give Irene an opportunity to strengthen, likely to a
category 1 hurricane.

I believe that Irene will begin a more NW/NNW path in the next day or so,
and will be just offshore of the mid-Atlantic states in a few days.
While the odds are that Irene will not make a US landfall, that is
not a guarantee! Please continue to follow the National Hurricane Center
for official guidance on TS Irene.

[weatherwoman]

looks like to me that you got info from the nhc your track is no different from theres

[WXFIEND]

Well I cvan't criticize. I hate when ppl go "oh you just copied that from NHC".

Sure, some people probably do, but EVERYONE looks at the same info, EVERYONE gets the same data/facts... so the hardcore facts are avaiable to anyone and the hardcore facts point to the NHC track...

[Trader Ron]

DH,

Keep up the good work. I know you put in a lot of time and effort, in your daily updates on the tropics.

[weatherwoman]

didnt mean to say anything wrong just thought maybe they had a different idea here, we can all see what the hc is saying its good to see what kind of new ideas people have to see beyond what is being said else where if there is anything to be said at all. thats is why i like joe bastardi he looks above and beyond everyone else, and makes good points but didnt mean any offence to anyone.

[dwg71]

looks like to me that you got info from the nhc your track is no different from theres

Copy the NHC and you will be just fine.

[x-y-no]

looks like to me that you got info from the nhc your track is no different from theres

So one can't arrive at a similar conclusion to the NHC's independently? Or is one supposed to make a prediction one doesn't believe, just for the sake of differing from NHC?



Jan

[dougjp]

Excellent presentation and explanation, DH. Proves the old adage, a picture is worth a thousand words.