Irene on her western jog thread

[Nimbus]

Looks like we need two threads one for when Irene jogs north and one for when she rolls west.

I don't see the ridge splitting yet as a matter of fact there is a ULL near Louisiana pumping the western part of the ridge north into Tennessee?

[ericinmia]

I have a really bad headache, so i can't explain.... but expect much more northerly, and less westerly...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

[ThunderMate]

oh come on that map looks like a cartoon. I never go by that map.

[CronkPSU]

well from that graphic it could go anwhere, not much in front of it

[Steve H.]

Sorry, if i'd go by that map I might assume its going to Cuba.

[ericinmia]

Not to sound conceded.... but you need to know how to read that map.

You are seeing that Irene is barely in the easterlies anymore, and has found a weakness in the western periphery of the ridge and has begun to encroach into it. The ridge axis is oriented to the east of the storm. It will cause it to head on a course farther from land. With a very high percentage chance that this will bar a landfall.
-Eric

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
here is a loop on Irene!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nimbus]

Thanks for the graphic!

There is the remnants of a ULL to the south of Irene that looks like it may be shifting to the southeast.

That ULL had been stripping convection yesterday but today looks strangely.. well lets wait for the 11AM advisory I think they are expecting it to lift out rather than ventilate.

[rockyman]

Actually, this is the correct steering map...the one at the top of the thread is for a more powerful storm:



This map makes it alot less obvious that this will be a fish. Note that the highs to east and west are connecting and "filling in"...this could potentially block the storm from zipping off the north or northeast.

[Frank2]

I don't see that, in fact, it appears (per the NHC TWD), that Irene will move northwestward then northward between the two highs, and them move northeastward when it approaches the strong westerlies.

Frank

[rockyman]

I don't see that, in fact, it appears (per the NHC TWD), that Irene will move northwestward then northward between the two highs, and them move northeastward when it approaches the strong westerlies.

Frank

This may be old thinking from 5am TWO:
IRENE IS CURRENTLY
HEADING FOR THE WEAKNESS...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO
FILL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL IRENE
RECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS BEFORE IT FILLS. ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM WILL RECURVE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED
STATES EXCEPT FOR THE OUTLIER GFDN...WHICH CALLS FOR A LANDFALL IN
NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...CALLING FOR IRENE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER
48-72 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 120 HR.

[Frank2]

WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO FILL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

The next five days? The storm is already approaching the area!

Frank

[WXFIEND]

Its gonna slow down.

[rockyman]

WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO FILL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

The next five days? The storm is already approaching the area!

Frank

I know...I thought that was odd also...but NHC must have had some reason for mentioning it...maybe CYA in case the system slows or stalls?

[SouthFloridawx]

it is moving more west

[/img]

[weatherwoman]

i think it is moving more west also do you see that

[mike815]

i see irene moving more west too am i seeing things is this just a jog or something more have to wait and see

[hurricanefloyd5]

think it could be just a jog w/wnw

[hurricanefloyd5]

think it could be just a jog w/wnw

[storms in NC]

the more jogs you have to the west is not good for the coast. And I don't see her slowing up either.