Tropical Storm Irene
August 12, 2005 5am E
Unofficial Forecast #4
Mike Naso
Tropical Storm Irene has continued to deepen, and now has sustained winds of 50 kt, and 997 mb pressure.
Overall, a ridge east of Bermuda is steering Irene northwest at about 14 mph, however a shortwave trough has created a weakness in the ridge down the road. Will Irene be pushed westward, and pull northward into the weakness, or will it be pushed generally northwest into the United States coastline? That is the big question. Due to the ridge above it, I believe Irene should move generally west-northwest or northwest over the next 12-24 hours, followed by a general westward curve. After that, I have gone between option one, a west-northwest coninuted track into land, and option two which is into the weakness and out to sea, with a general slowdown in coming days.
Irene has been increasing in strength, and now has winds of 50 kt. Recon will be out later to check on Irene, and much more data will be given out. Until then, satellite shows improved outflow, good curved banding....and since Irene is in a favorable low shear environment, general development is expected. Due to some coolor waters ahead, Irene may sputter a bit in the 72 hour range. However, if it makes a more westward curve...as I expect, then Irene may stay over warmer water. Nevertheless, Tropical Storm Irene could be a potent hurricane off the Eastern United States in 120 hours...give or take.
12 Hours: 28.3 N/ 66.8 W - 60 kt
24 Hours: 29.1 N/ 68.0 W - 65 kt
36 Hours: 29.8 N/ 69.6 W - 75 kt
48 Hours: 30.2 N/ 71.3 W - 85 kt
72 Hours: 31.8 N/ 72.6 W - 95 kt
96 Hours: 33.9 N/ 73.2 W - 95 kt
120 Hours: 36.0 N/ 73.8 W - 95 kt
