Tropical Storm Fernanda At EPAC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also the system to its east is looking much better. The quickscat also shows a closed LLC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

[Thunder44]

It's now a hurricane:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110841
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005

QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER OF FERNANDA WAS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTER OF A SMALL
BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB...USING
THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...GIVES A T4.0...AND THE 6Z ODT 3-HR T
NUMBER WAS 4.1. ON THIS BASIS...FERNANDA IS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
QUITE AS SYMMETRIC. WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER FERNANDA ARE ALREADY
COMING DOWN...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE IS PEAKING A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED OR AS SHOWN BELOW. THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8...SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND
THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT
FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING WEST OF THE LONGITUDE OF THIS LOW AND
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY STEERED MORE TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT STILL FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.5N 120.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 17.6N 122.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.1N 123.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.3N 124.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 18.7N 126.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W 35 KT

$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WOPZ41 KNHC 110944
DSAEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM PDT THU AUGUST 11 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


The Eastern Pacific is racing to catch up with the Atlantic.

[Andrew92]

Well, at least Fernanda became a hurricane out there and that she's no threat.

Anyone else bored with her?

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

552
WTPZ41 KNHC 111435
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005

T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY COMING DOWN AS THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GETTING
MORE RAGGED ON IR SATELLITE PICTURES. HOWEVER THE CENTER APPEARS TO
BE SOLIDLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CDO AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
AT 65 KT IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM SAB. THE CYCLONE
HAS LIKELY PEAKED WITH COOLING SSTS IN ITS PATH AND THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER ALREADY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS AND THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO NEARLY PARALLEL THE 25C ISOTHERM.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS BEYOND 2 DAYS
WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR CYCLONES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 25C.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7. FERNANDA HAS PASSED THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING SHOULD NUDGE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON THEN TO THE WEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.
IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD ALSO FORCE THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE. THE NOGAPS IS
A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER...KEEPING A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWEST BECAUSE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WEAKENS THE HIGH
MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY
BECAUSE OF THE UNREASONABLE HIGHER STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST BY NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH ACCELERATES THE
DECAYING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND IT IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 16.9N 121.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.4N 122.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 17.9N 123.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 18.3N 124.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 18.6N 125.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.8N 127.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 133.5W 30 KT

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 112029
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005

SO MUCH FOR THE WEAKENING OF FERNANDA WHICH IS DISPLAYING A BANDED
EYE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THIS AFTERNOON. A 1508Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE THOUGH RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE EYE MAY BE SHRINKING AND CONSOLIDATING
IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BETWEEN
AODT'S OF 4.4 AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NEAR 4.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE. CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT FROM THE STANDARD
DVORAK CURVE BASED ON CONSECUTIVE CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATES.
HOWEVER...FERNANDA IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTERM AND SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN A SLOW DECAYING TREND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WITHIN VERY LIGHT SHEAR AND PARALLELLS THE 25C ISOTHERM. WIND
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BEYOND 3 DAYS AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT-TERM.
FERNANDA IS BECOMING MORE CONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH
NEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTERWARD...FERNANDA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NOGAPS REMAINS AN OUTLIER BY
WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND KEEPING A STRONG CYCLONE MOVING
NORTHWEST THROUGH 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE
NOGAPS SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED BASED ON A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII FOLLOW WIND RADII CLIPER.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.3N 121.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 17.7N 122.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.1N 124.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 18.4N 125.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W 30 KT

[superfly]

EPAC on visible is a beautiful sight right now.

[cycloneye]

565
WTPZ21 KNHC 120247
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
0300Z FRI AUG 12 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 122.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 122.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.3N 123.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.9N 124.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.5N 126.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.5N 127.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 122.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[gilbert88]

Fernanda ... I don't think female names can get any wimpier sounding.

[HurricaneBill]

Fernanda ... I don't think female names can get any wimpier sounding.

I think it sounds pretty!

[gilbert88]

Fernanda ... I don't think female names can get any wimpier sounding.

I think it sounds pretty!

Oh, Fernanda it's a very pretty name, but doesn't sound like a strong storm name at all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

12/0600 UTC 17.7N 122.5W T4.5/4.5 FERNADA -- East Pacific Ocean

[HurricaneBill]

Fernanda ... I don't think female names can get any wimpier sounding.

I think it sounds pretty!

Oh, Fernanda it's a very pretty name, but doesn't sound like a strong storm name at all.

Category 4 in 1993.

[cycloneye]

062
WTPZ21 KNHC 122039
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
2100Z FRI AUG 12 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 124.8W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 124.8W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.2N 127.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 141.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 124.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTPZ21 KNHC 130234
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
0300Z SAT AUG 13 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 125.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 125.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.1N 126.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.1N 128.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 130.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.1N 131.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 135.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 142.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 125.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[P.K.]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130906
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
THE OUTER BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
HOWEVER...DEEP CORE CONVECTION PERSISTS. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...65 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT
FROM AFWA. SAB REMAINS AT 77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT
IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD...CONTINUED WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER
WESTERLIES GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH THE RELATIVELY STABLE MARINE LAYER WHILE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 19.2N 126.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 19.3N 127.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 135.7W 35 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 16.5N 139.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W 30 KT

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005

FERNANDA HAS STEADILY MAINTAINED CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE CONSTRAINED
TO 4.5 OR 77 KT. AFWA DATA T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN THE OTHER
CENTERS...BUT ALL AGREE THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD TO 70 KT UNTIL DAYLIGHT SATELLITE IMAGES
GIVE US A BETTER PICTURE OF THE SYSTEM.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR. BEYOND 12 HOURS...
FERNANDA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IT BECOMES A DEPRESSION. THE INTENSITY OUTLIER IS
THE GFDL MODEL WHICH WEAKENS FERNANDA TO 45 KT... BUT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IT RE-STRENGTHENS IT BACK TO A HURRICANE. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE...
SHIPS AND PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. AGAIN...THE INDIVIDUAL
MODELS AND MODEL CONSENSUS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING FERNANDA TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AS A RESULT OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 19.2N 127.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 19.2N 128.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 18.8N 129.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.3N 131.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 133.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W 35 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W 30 KT

[cycloneye]

199
WTPZ41 KNHC 132034
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005

FERNANDA CONTINUES TO BARELY MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. LATEST
DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FIX. ALSO...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUE FROM AFWA IS 3.9 AND FROM TAFB IS 3.7 RESPECTIVELY.
OBJECTIVE MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
ESTIMATE CLOSE TO 987 MB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS DECREASED TO 65 KT. IN ADDITION...WIND RADII IN ALL QUADRANTS
HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON A 1436Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE
FSSE...GFDL AND SHIPS YIELDS A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FERNANDA WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR FERNANDA TO BECOME A DEPRESSION IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY
ABOVE 35-40 KT AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER SSTS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
INTENSITY IN THE LATER PERIOD MAY BE NEEDED IF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THEY
DEPICT FERNANDA MOVING SOUTHWEST BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHEAST.
THESE FEATURES ARE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 19.3N 127.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.7N 130.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 17.7N 134.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 16.8N 137.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W 30 KT

[cycloneye]

TCMEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
0300Z SUN AUG 14 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.7W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.7W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 128.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 129.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.4N 131.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 133.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 134.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 128.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 140853
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005

DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS CONFIRMED THE EARLIER AMSU SIZE ESTIMATION DATA. THE
COOLER WATERS AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER APPEAR TO BE FINALLY
TAKING ITS TOLL ON FERNANDA. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 45 AND 55
KT. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TO 55 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/7. THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND DAY 3. INTERROGRATION OF
THE FIELDS REVEALS AN ERRONEOUS MERGING SCENARIO WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 18.9N 129.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 130.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 17.9N 131.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 17.4N 133.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 134.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 16.4N 137.6W 30 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 141.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 145.0W 30 KT