well i guess the waiting game continues for tonights 00Z models....
<RICKY>
Latest GFS Has a System Impacting South FL Down the Road
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WeatherEmperor
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It seems that with every run the models shift farther and farther left. Without anything other than a gut feeling to base it on I think Irene may well pose a threat for the NE Florida or even Georgia...I personally don't see it gaining enough latitude to threaten the Carolinas, maybe SC but not NC...again, nothing but a (large) gut feeling...
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Re: Latest GFS Has a System Impacting the East Coast of FL
boca_chris wrote:See if for yourself ...comments welcome
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
FL more than likely would not be in the worst area of this storm. Looks like area North of FL are more than likely to see something from this storm.
The GFS has a SW bias you need to factor that into your assessment.
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WindRunner
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KWT wrote:Hi Wthrman13,its true that you can't really measure hurricane strength,however as a very rought estimate I personally anything sub-1000 on the global would translate into a major hurricane,of course thats only rough and theres no real equation to work it out.
Yeah, that's about what I've figured out.
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Snice this is a down the road thread (nice recovery 
), I thought I'd point out that the GFS ensembles prog the NAO briefly negative then to seriously positive (at least as strong as it's been since early May). I was watching JB this morning and he said he thought we may be facing an impending Newfoundland Wheel pattern (massive high centered over SE Canada that sets up a substantial block and opens the US East Coast). This basically means the ensembles are calling for a strong & large high pressure in the North Atlantic. Depending on how large depends on who is vulnerable in that pattern and of course on what's coming in from underneath. It's just something to watch for since the 7 day lead forecast has been particularly good this year.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
Steve
), I thought I'd point out that the GFS ensembles prog the NAO briefly negative then to seriously positive (at least as strong as it's been since early May). I was watching JB this morning and he said he thought we may be facing an impending Newfoundland Wheel pattern (massive high centered over SE Canada that sets up a substantial block and opens the US East Coast). This basically means the ensembles are calling for a strong & large high pressure in the North Atlantic. Depending on how large depends on who is vulnerable in that pattern and of course on what's coming in from underneath. It's just something to watch for since the 7 day lead forecast has been particularly good this year.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
Steve
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jax
Re: Latest GFS Has a System Impacting South FL Down the Road
boca_chris wrote:See if for yourself ...comments welcome
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
not showing up anymore...
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gkrangers
Re: Latest GFS Has a System Impacting South FL Down the Road
Thats a friggin surprise.jax wrote:boca_chris wrote:See if for yourself ...comments welcome
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
not showing up anymore...
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