Tropical Depression Greg At EPAC

[cycloneye]

The EPAC rally is on strong now.Being the MJO factor in the wet phase in the EPAC there is Fernanda and this new system behind.

[WindRunner]

Wow, that's kinda close to Fernanda for too much to happen.

[P.K.]

Well it looks like we have TD7 now going by the NRL page.

000
WOPZ41 KNHC 110944
DSAEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM PDT THU AUGUST 11 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ22 KNHC 111034
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005
1100Z THU AUG 11 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.8W AT 11/1100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.8W AT 11/1100Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.6N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.2N 112.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.3N 114.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


The rally in the EPAC is going strong a result of a favorable or wet MJO now in the EPAC..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 111047
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIS MORNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 01Z CLEARLY SHOWED 3/4 OF A
CIRCULATION. A TRMM PASS AT 06Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND
TO THE SOUTH OF AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER...WITH A BROADER BAND
FARTHER OUT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT
6Z WERE ONLY T1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT
TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY JUST OVER AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER...WHILE NIGHT-VIS IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH ROTATION TO
CONCLUDE THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER EXISTS. THE PRESENT PATTERN
WAS ASSESSED TO BE T2.0 BY TAFB AT 9Z...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY ABOUT 650 NMI
BEHIND FERNANDA...AND FERNANDA COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
FUTURE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION. A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND THIS SHOULD TAKE THE
DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE SHORT RUN. THE MEDIUM BAM
WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS A FAIR BIT FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...SO I AM PRESUMING MORE OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES THAN INDICATED BY THE BAMM...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE DEPRESSION WELL TO THE RIGHT OF
EITHER THE GFS OR THE BAM GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS
WERE DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF INCONSISTENCY WITH CURRENT MOTION AND A
POOR INITIALIZATION...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THAT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS NO PARTICULAR OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT IT...IT IS
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH OUTFLOW FROM
FERNANDA...AND IF IT TAKES THE FORECAST PATH...WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH COLD WATER WITHIN 72 HOURS. THUS ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1100Z 13.2N 109.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 13.6N 111.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.2N 112.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.3N 114.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 116.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

If this depression becomes a storm the name given will be Greg.

[Thunder44]

East Pacific is really becoming active. But I think it's funny they would issue a STDS for a East Pacific storm that will be no threat to land.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They issue it for boating in shiping interest. The nhc is not only for land but for sea.

[Thunder44]

They issue it for boating in shiping interest. The nhc is not only for land but for sea.

They don't seem to do the same with some storms out in the Atlantic. Is there more marine interest in the East Pacific or something?

[Andrew92]

the cloud pattern has improved a lot since yesterday. However...the
center is to the north and near the edge of the deep convection due
to slight northerly shear caused by the outflow of Fernanda. Based
on a Dvorak T-number from TAFB...the initial intensity has been
adjusted to 35 knots and the cyclone has been named Greg. Since
the ocean is warm and the shear is not strong enough to halt
strenghtening...a gradual intensification is indicated for the next
2 to 3 days. Thereafter...the cyclone will be approaching cooler
waters and weakening should begin.
Greg appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees
at 11 knots. The cyclone is located south of a subtropical ridge
extending from Mexico westward. This would support a general
west-northwest track through 5 days the as indicated by models.
However...the circulation of Fernanda should induce a little bit of
northward component to the motion as stated in the previous
advisory. This is reflected in the official forecast which is to
right of the guidance envelope.

Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/1500z 13.6n 110.5w 35 kt
12hr VT 12/0000z 14.0n 112.0w 40 kt
24hr VT 12/1200z 14.8n 114.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 13/0000z 15.5n 116.0w 50 kt
48hr VT 13/1200z 16.5n 117.5w 45 kt
72hr VT 14/1200z 19.5n 119.5w 35 kt
96hr VT 15/1200z 22.0n 122.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 16/1200z 23.0n 124.0w 20 kt...dissipating


$$


Greg is born.

[cycloneye]

553
WTPZ42 KNHC 111435
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A LOT SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE
TO SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF FERNANDA. BASED
ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN NAMED GREG. SINCE
THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT
STRENGHTENING...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER
WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

GREG APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS THE AS INDICATED BY MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA SHOULD INDUCE A LITTLE BIT OF
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS TO
RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 13.6N 110.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.0N 112.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 114.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 22.0N 122.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 23.0N 124.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

[HurricaneBill]

They issue it for boating in shiping interest. The nhc is not only for land but for sea.

They don't seem to do the same with some storms out in the Atlantic. Is there more marine interest in the East Pacific or something?

I don't know, but during Hurricane Carlotta in 2000, a ship sank killing 18.

[gkrangers]

They issue it for boating in shiping interest. The nhc is not only for land but for sea.

They don't seem to do the same with some storms out in the Atlantic. Is there more marine interest in the East Pacific or something?

It developed very quickly into a TS...they would do the same in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GREG CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
ARE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS.

IT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THAT THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA WAS GOING
TO FORCE GREG TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE BEHIND FERNANDA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
GREG ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
12Z OUTPUT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH
OF GREG. IN FACT...THESE MODELS SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN A
DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT GREG WILL STAY
OVER WARM WATERS AND STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS
INDICATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 13.8N 110.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.3N 112.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 113.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 15.5N 114.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 118.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W 65 KT

[Swimdude]

Altantic - 9
EPAC --- 7

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005
0300Z FRI AUG 12 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 111.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 111.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 13.8N 112.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.0N 114.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.4N 115.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 14.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 120908
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005

THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED...AND AN
AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0537Z SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GREG
IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE REMAINS OF THE BURST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE
THE AMSU IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION. SO FAR...THE TRACK OF GREG IS NOT BEING
AFFECTED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE FERNANDA...AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS TO ALLOW GREG TO STAY ON A
WESTERLY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTELY MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE
NORTHERLY NOGAPS AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACAKAGE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL...GUNS...AND CONU.

SOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED OVER GREG...
WHICH FOR THE MOMENT HAS DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THIS
SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AND ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
RE-ORGANIZE AROUND THE CENTER...WITH GREG REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 24-48 HR. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GREG
SHOULD BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 13.7N 112.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 13.8N 113.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.0N 114.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 14.2N 115.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 14.3N 116.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W 65 KT

[cycloneye]

TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER OF GREG. THE CENTER IS
QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN SINCE CENTER FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB
DIFFER BY 4 TENTHS OF A DEGREE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION. BASED
ON PREVIOUS SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM... AND FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY MICROWAVE FIXES... THE OFFICIAL POSITION TENDS TOWARD
THE SAB POSITION. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL CENTERS ARE ALSO
MIXED...BUT GENERALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE
SHIPS MODEL REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND 50 KT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFDL AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MAKE
GREG A HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES MAKE GREG A HURRICANE BEYOND 36 HOURS... BUT
THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN FUTURE
ADVISORIES AS GREG STRUGGLES IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WESTWARD IN TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF CONTINUITY AND THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL. THE GFS VORTEX TRACKER
FROM THE 12Z RUN TAKES A HUGE SOUTH AND EAST TURNAROUND... AN
UNREALISTIC RADICAL SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY... A LOWER CONFIDENCE IS
PLACED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH UTILIZE THE GFS
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK MOVES GREG IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
DIRECTION AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS... WHICH
CONSISTS OF THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS TRACKS.

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 14.5N 113.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 14.6N 114.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.6N 115.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 14.7N 117.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 14.5N 119.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 126.0W 65 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPZ22 KNHC 130234
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005
0300Z SAT AUG 13 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 113.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 113.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.6N 114.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.1N 119.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 14.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 113.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[P.K.]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 130906
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG REMAINS EXPOSED NORTH
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FEW INFRARED SHORTWAVE
IMAGES DEPICT A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE ABOUT 30 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN SOME. AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 35
KT EVEN THOUGH THE DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT. THE 34 KT
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TO CONFORM
TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...GRADUALLY INCREASING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY
2....THEN MAINTAINING 65 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND
SHIPS SOLUTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. AFTERWARDS...THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE BETWEEN
HURRICANE FERNANDA AND GREG SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM CREATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 15.1N 114.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 15.3N 114.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 15.2N 115.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 123.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 125.5W 65 KT