UNOFFICIAL...Irene #10; nudge back right; cane in 96; TS?now

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 10:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... irene.html

I start with a tropical storm, figuring that if we've got a storm, then it's strong enough to be classified as a tropical storm. I would have loved to see a QuikSCAT pass of the entire storm this evening, but no dice there. Biggest issue here is pinpointing a low-level center; and this, along with forward motion will have an early impact of the track. Forecasted track is now much less confident and is a little to the right, also allowing for a hurricane in 96 hours.

Track graphic coming out soon.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast graphic is now out. I continue to stress that the cone of uncertainty should especially be paid attention to, particularly with the lower confidence track forecast tonight.

Scott

[huricanwatcher]

please post link

[ncweatherwizard]

Use the link to the forecast in the first post.