My first attempt at a decent forecast 1

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du1st

My first attempt at a decent forecast 1

#1 Postby du1st » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:23 pm

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well to start of for the first 48 hours Irene will have a hard time developing. When the shear relaxes a little and when she gets out of the SAL she will strengthen probalby to a strong Tropical storm in 72hrs. After that in 96 to 120 hours she will probalby strengthen to a cat 1 or 2.

For track I think Irene will keep her WNW track for 72 to 96 hours then a minor trough may change her direction to NW or not. For a first guess she may make landfall at Myrtle Beach.

This probalby stunk but it is my best try.

PS This will be no Andrew.
Last edited by du1st on Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ivanhater
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#2 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:25 pm

good work...keep it up
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#3 Postby jabber » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:25 pm

Hey,

Great first forcast. I have been here for years and have yet made a forcast.
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#4 Postby storms in NC » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:27 pm

not bad you did a nice job
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#5 Postby du1st » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:29 pm

Thank you! :D
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#6 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:29 pm

Nice forecast du1st! :wink:
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#7 Postby du1st » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:36 pm

I try my best tampa.
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#8 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:37 pm

Brief, but agreeable in all aspects.
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#9 Postby du1st » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:40 pm

I'll write a more detailed one tommorrow when the 11am advisory comes out.
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#10 Postby Swimdude » Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:35 pm

Nice first try! A map would be nice, if you know how to conjure those up! :wink: Good job!
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#11 Postby Radar » Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:47 pm

My humble opinion kind of agrees with yours. I have been saying from Jax up through South Carolina is the most likely landfall areas... But that is just my opinion... Keep up the good work and keep us up to date. Way to Go!
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#12 Postby george_r_1961 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 3:07 am

Good forecast with good reasoning.
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#13 Postby du1st » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:12 pm

Thanks everyone! How do you do graphics?
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