Irene forecast #7

[deltadog03]

good afternoon everyone!!! Ok, I have been pondering on what to do for this update. I mean the thinking is pretty much the same... I am starting Irene off on a 275 heading. This has been pretty much the same for the past 3 days now. I see no real big reason why it should. unless explosive strengthening happens and I don't really think that is going to happen. Irene reminds me of a summer time pulse thunderstorm. I mean, she blows up and then the convection goes bye bye...that is fairly typical in a weak system like this. She does however look to be better organized today. However, I think this pulsing type pattern will persist for the next 24 hours or so due to the fact there is still some dry air out to the west. This dry air is quickly filling in and she will be in a much better pattern for development. The shear has let up considerably the past day or so. I look for Irene to reagain TS status within 24 hours. The extended is still rather unclear but, the muddy waters are starting to become clearer. The BIG question as always is where and how strong will the ridge be. I feel like HPC and NHC stewart gave a great discription to that and I don't think the models are seeing that YET. Therefore the forecast track is pretty much the same but, with more of a left or west movement in the end as I feel like the ridge will be plenty strong enough. ok, WOW this is long...enjoy and comments are always welcomed.
short term confidence: good
extended confidence: upgraded to fair
1 more thing...Take those landfall probs with a grain of salt...they are prelim...thanks
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

yes I see this happening....the model runs tonight will paint a better picture

[deltadog03]

thanks...comments folks..plz

[Ivanhater]

great forecast

[Deenac813]

Thanks for the forecast and I like the graphics.

[deltadog03]

thanks yall...

[Cookiely]

I love the graphics. One picture is worth a thousand words to me. I also agree on your projected path. The next 24 hours will be significant.

[WindRunner]

I say either too far south or too strong. The only way I see it going that far south is if it doesn't strengthen much past 75kts max. Of course, you have the fact that the further south you go, the stronger it will get, which completely reverses everything I said, but that's how confusing these forecasts are for now. But no one can be sure for another 48hr, so we'll have to wait and see.

[deltadog03]

I agree...well, I think she strengthens and those numbers might be underdone...This will ultimately get steered by the ridge...REGARDLESS on how strong this gets, it will be influenced by the ridge...i am south due to the fact that the models are not seeing how strong this ridge is...we will see...thank you for the comments

[Ivanhater]

I say either too far south or too strong. The only way I see it going that far south is if it doesn't strengthen much past 75kts max. Of course, you have the fact that the further south you go, the stronger it will get, which completely reverses everything I said, but that's how confusing these forecasts are for now. But no one can be sure for another 48hr, so we'll have to wait and see.

actually the steering flow in the upper levels is more east to west and in the lower levels it is more south to north...reversed of normal....so if it strengthens the pattern is more of a westward course