Question about New Orleans evacuation plans

[micktooth]

I remember back in 92 when Andrew was approaching, there really wasn't any mention of an evacuation. We all saw the images of SOFLA and couldn't believe our eyes. Well, Andrew approached and we all waited for it to pass the magical 90 longitude line. What if it didn't? We were all " sitting ducks". Today, a storm can be thousands of miles away a la Dennis and people, including some higher ups start going nuts about worse case scenarios. Are we "smarter" today or just overreacting to a potential disaster? I think the locals, need to step back and take a deep breath. Make an "educated" decision and not a "knee jerk reaction" based on computer simulations. BTW, I evacuated for Ivan and Georges and I plan on leaving again, when sound science seems to indicate the need to do so. Any comments will be appreciated.

[djtil]

just overreacting to a potential disaster?

in the ballpark.

[WindRunner]

If you live in NO, then overreacting is not really what everyone is doing. A cat3 through NO could cause mass damage, forget a direct hit by a mediocre cat4 or higher. Now, overreacting could be the case if they were freaking out when Dennis was still 4-6 days away, but they have good cause to when you have three million people living in a cereal bowl.

[seaswing]

I believe that we are smarter these days. I know that until last year (Charley, Frances, Ivan,Jeanne) most people north of Miami didn't think it would happen here. I also know that we were sitting ducks and if any of the storms had been a little worse, there could have been many more deaths. I know in my own town, there was not ONE shelter. We had no power after Frances for 6 days, some went much longer. this area was not prepared... as for preparing for storms and evacuations, I know that Florida will evacuate the Keys tourists first because of traffic concerns. I also saw that almost everyone who evacuated last year had to come north, and then many left the state. Lots of them stayed here or more north (like it was safer or something) The traffic on I-75 was almost at a standstill and the storms were less than 12 hours away. In Florida, I think early evacuation is smart. It gives people time to get out with some time to spare. Waiting only creates chaos and as I saw last year, with no gas and no where to go, some people were SOL when the storms hit.

[sunny]

If you live in NO, then overreacting is not really what everyone is doing. A cat3 through NO could cause mass damage, forget a direct hit by a mediocre cat4 or higher. Now, overreacting could be the case if they were freaking out when Dennis was still 4-6 days away, but they have good cause to when you have three million people living in a cereal bowl.

Bingo. lol - if overreacting saves my life, then I will gladly do it.

[Shoshana]

Officials have to react earlier and earlier because it takes a lot longer to evac that anyone would anticipate - especially places that are difficult to evacuate like New Orleans and areas on barrier islands near big cities - like the Galveston Houston area.

And they can't evac last minute - besides the huge traffic jams, as a big hurricane approaches, low lying areas flood and the wind makes causeways, bridges and ferries to dangerous to use. Counterflow takes a while to set up too.

Depending on the storm speed, evacs in NO might need to be started as the storm gets into the GoM ... which means planning starts before that.

[crabbyhermit]

Good question. I was talking about this just the other day with my 15 year old nephew (I'm trying to turn him into a weather weenie, like me. hehe). Anyway, i'm 45 years old, native New Orleanian, and it's also struck me that the "everyone should evacuate" mentality started around NOLA area after Andrew--or rather, with Georges, after we saw what Andrew could have done had it come straight here (and what it did in parishes to the west of NOLA). You are right, since Georges, a storm could be just entering the Gulf and all talk is turned to evacuation plans. It's prudent, sure, but you have to wonder what changed between, say, Betsy (of which I have vivid memories, riding out the storm at home, in my mama's lap all those years ago) and Andrew. I sure don't remember any evac orders for New Orleans proper before then. My parents never, ever mentioned the possiblity of us leaving town for a hurricane; their only real worry was that our beloved fishing camp on Lake Catherine would be destroyed!

[KeyLargoDave]

Big difference I think would have something to do with the SLOSH models and the realization that Lake Pontchartrain spilling into the city would trap everyone and could drown thousands.

Evacuation is such a tricky tropic. Officials have to take the safest approach, whereas individual residents can take a lot more into account -- how strong their home is, how high, how close to likely surge, and so on. In the top part of the Keys, we often talk about scenarios where we would evacuate south, farther down the Keys, but there is no consideration of that in official plans. One thing I think I've decided is that it's more important to get away from the eyewall and the right side, and it's not always wise to try to evacuate if you're likely to be on the left side and 50-60 miles from the center. Even if a major storm was headed for Miami, it wouldn't necessarily be best for me to leave the Keys.

But in New Orleans, advice to "hunker down" is a lot trickier, and the left side of the storm could be the dangerous side; you simply can't be in the city if it's going to flood. There might be some cases where I'd evacuate the lakefront but feel safe on the high ground near Audubon Park, but...even if your house survives, you could be trapped in the middle of a lake that lasts for a month -- at least that's what some of the doomsday scenarios say. I'd want to make sure I had a lot of food, water, and a pirougue and an escape hatch in the attic.

[Shoshana]

what changed between, say, Betsy (of which I have vivid memories, riding out the storm at home, in my mama's lap all those years ago) and Andrew. I sure don't remember any evac orders for New Orleans proper before then. My parents never, ever mentioned the possiblity of us leaving town for a hurricane; their only real worry was that our beloved fishing camp on Lake Catherine would be destroyed!

There's not as much land inbetween NO and the ocean as there used to be - barrier islands, vegetation and bayous would slow down storm surge. But they just aren't there anymore.

The Greater NO area is sinking so a smaller storm could cause a bigger problem.

[Cookiely]

If you live in NO, then overreacting is not really what everyone is doing. A cat3 through NO could cause mass damage, forget a direct hit by a mediocre cat4 or higher. Now, overreacting could be the case if they were freaking out when Dennis was still 4-6 days away, but they have good cause to when you have three million people living in a cereal bowl.

Lots and lots of milk outside the cereal bowl.

[micktooth]

Thanks for the reply crabby. I wasn't saying why do we evacuate, I was just wondering why all of the sudden do we have to start to pack when any storm heads towards the Gulf? Like I said, I left before, and I will leave again. It's just that up until recently, ie;Georges, noone was told to leave. Now you can't really think that there had been that much of an eye opening advancement in technology from Andrew '92 to Georges '98. I hate to say it, but I think it makes for exciting local news. It is the talk of the town the whole week leading up to a potential storm in NO. Yes I know what can happen here (see above for prior evacs), I just was wondering who woke up and smelled the coffee? Duh, you mean we can all drown if we stay? I hope y'all get my point now.