Tropical Storm Fernanda At EPAC

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
0300Z WED AUG 10 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 116.2W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 116.2W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.3N 117.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 124.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 116.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


Forecast to become a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005

VISIBLE IMAGERY PRESENTATION DEPICTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND THAT THE HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. IMPRESSIVE
BANDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS HAVE DEVELOPED AS
WELL AS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30 KT
FROM AFWA. IN VIEW OF THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES TO 40 KT. TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY
3...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW
IS BEING CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC FROM CENTRAL MEXICO AND INFLUENCED SOMEWHAT BY A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH DAY 3. AFTERWARDS...AN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO
INFLUENCE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...UKMENT AND THE GFDL. THE NHC
FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SLOWER TO
CONFORM TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 14.8N 116.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 15.3N 117.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 124.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W 35 KT

[clfenwi]

Are you watching this Irene??? This is a tropical storm and future hurricane.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it was not for that cold water. This would be a major hurricane with in the next 72 to 96 hours.

[superfly]

Are you watching this Irene??? This is a tropical storm and future hurricane.

Imagine the panic if Irene was showing Fernanda's type of satellite presentation.

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KMIA 100617
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA (EP062005) ON 20050810 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050810 0600 050810 1800 050811 0600 050811 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 116.7W 15.9N 118.6W 16.8N 120.5W 17.6N 122.1W
BAMM 15.1N 116.7W 16.0N 118.7W 16.9N 120.5W 17.6N 122.2W
LBAR 15.1N 116.7W 15.9N 118.6W 17.1N 120.6W 18.2N 122.9W
SHIP 40KTS 50KTS 58KTS 63KTS
DSHP 40KTS 50KTS 58KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050812 0600 050813 0600 050814 0600 050815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 123.5W 18.9N 126.4W 19.4N 129.5W 19.7N 132.3W
BAMM 18.1N 123.6W 18.6N 126.4W 18.9N 129.3W 18.8N 132.4W
LBAR 19.3N 125.1W 21.4N 129.0W 23.4N 130.7W 26.0N 129.6W
SHIP 66KTS 62KTS 55KTS 47KTS
DSHP 66KTS 62KTS 55KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 116.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 114.8W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 112.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 40NM

[mobilebay]

WHXX01 KMIA 100617
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA (EP062005) ON 20050810 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050810 0600 050810 1800 050811 0600 050811 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 116.7W 15.9N 118.6W 16.8N 120.5W 17.6N 122.1W
BAMM 15.1N 116.7W 16.0N 118.7W 16.9N 120.5W 17.6N 122.2W
LBAR 15.1N 116.7W 15.9N 118.6W 17.1N 120.6W 18.2N 122.9W
SHIP 40KTS 50KTS 58KTS 63KTS
DSHP 40KTS 50KTS 58KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050812 0600 050813 0600 050814 0600 050815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 123.5W 18.9N 126.4W 19.4N 129.5W 19.7N 132.3W
BAMM 18.1N 123.6W 18.6N 126.4W 18.9N 129.3W 18.8N 132.4W
LBAR 19.3N 125.1W 21.4N 129.0W 23.4N 130.7W 26.0N 129.6W
SHIP 66KTS 62KTS 55KTS 47KTS
DSHP 66KTS 62KTS 55KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 116.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 114.8W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 112.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 40NM

Great post!

[P.K.]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 100843
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2005

THERE IS A SMALL ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
FERNANDA. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45
KT...HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE WATER WILL BE WARM FOR
ANOTHER 48 HOURS. WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY TO
THE NORTH OF FERNANDA...INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FERNANDA SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHEN A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS DISRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL CREATE
A WEAKER THAN NORMAL STEERING FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
FOR ABOUT THREE DAYS. BY THAT POINT...FERNANDA SHOULD HAVE
BYPASSED THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN FERNANDA WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE
SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER...BUT ITS TRACK APPEARS TO BE CONTAMINATED BY
THE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE BEHIND FERNANDA.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.3N 117.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 15.8N 118.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 119.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.8N 120.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.4N 121.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 18.5N 124.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 18.5N 128.5W 35 KT

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA (EP062005) ON 20050810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050810 1200 050811 0000 050811 1200 050812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.4N 118.1W 16.3N 119.9W 17.2N 121.5W 17.9N 122.8W
BAMM 15.4N 118.1W 16.4N 119.8W 17.1N 121.2W 17.7N 122.6W
LBAR 15.4N 118.1W 16.1N 120.3W 17.3N 122.5W 18.5N 124.7W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 76KTS 78KTS
DSHP 55KTS 68KTS 76KTS 78KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050812 1200 050813 1200 050814 1200 050815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 124.0W 18.2N 127.0W 17.9N 130.6W 18.1N 134.5W
BAMM 18.0N 123.8W 18.2N 126.6W 17.9N 130.0W 17.8N 133.7W
LBAR 19.5N 126.8W 21.4N 130.0W 22.7N 131.6W 24.0N 131.2W
SHIP 78KTS 69KTS 59KTS 49KTS
DSHP 78KTS 69KTS 59KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 118.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 115.8W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 113.8W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 50NM


Fernanda on the virge to become a hurricane.

[WindRunner]

Wow, 55kts, that's quite the upgrade. 40 to 55kts in 6 hours. I wish Irene would do that . . .

[cycloneye]

101459
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2005

FERNANDA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVED
BANDING FEATURES AND AN INFRARED WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY SHOWING UP
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CDO FEATURE. A 0651Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO
INDICATED A 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVELS. BASED ON THE TRMM OVERPASS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF
T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL MAINLY THE FORWARD SPEED. THE GFS STILL
APPEARS TO BE OVERDEVELOPING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO
THE EAST OF FERNANDA...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THAT SOLUTION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL POSITION
BEING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FERNANDA MAY BE
UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OVERALL
SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF
AT LEAST A NORMAL 20 KT...OR 1 DVORAK T-NUMBER...PER 24 HOURS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT HOURS OR SO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY 36 HOURS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
A GRADUALLY COOLER WATER WITH SSTS OF 24-26C...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 15.6N 118.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 16.0N 119.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.4N 121.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 18.2N 125.7W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 18.5N 128.0W 55 KT

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005

FERNANDA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED
RAINBANDS AROUND THE CDO AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SMALL EYE WAS FORMING WITH CONVECTION
NOW BURSTING NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO
60 KT. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW LITTLE SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS BELOW 26.5C IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALMOST 4 TIMES THE MEAN SO
FERNANDA COULD INTENSIFY A BIT MORE THAN SUGGESTED BELOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE... 290/9. THE TRACK FORECAST
SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL
CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS THEN
NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.7N 119.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 16.8N 121.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 17.4N 123.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.8N 124.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 18.3N 126.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 18.3N 128.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 18.3N 131.0W 45 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 110241
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005

VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
WITH IMPRESSIVE INNER AND OUTER SPIRAL BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INNER CORE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 60 KT. SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST
THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCES. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE PROVIDED BY A MID TO
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS...AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE
THE UPPER LOW CAUSING FERNANDA TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN THE NOGAPS
DEVIATES TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF TRACK TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE GUNA AND
CONU MODEL BLENDS AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 16.3N 120.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 122.3W 70 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 18.3N 123.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 18.7N 124.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W 50 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W 30 KT

[clfenwi]

866
WHXX01 KMIA 110618
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FERNANDA (EP062005) ON 20050811 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050811 0600 050811 1800 050812 0600 050812 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 120.2W 17.1N 121.8W 17.8N 123.2W 18.3N 124.7W
BAMM 16.3N 120.2W 17.1N 121.9W 17.8N 123.4W 18.3N 124.7W
LBAR 16.3N 120.2W 17.2N 121.7W 18.3N 123.4W 19.5N 125.1W
SHIP 65KTS 67KTS 66KTS 63KTS
DSHP 65KTS 67KTS 66KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050813 0600 050814 0600 050815 0600 050816 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 126.1W 19.0N 129.0W 19.3N 132.0W 20.5N 135.7W
BAMM 18.7N 126.0W 19.1N 128.7W 19.3N 131.5W 20.1N 135.1W
LBAR 20.4N 126.4W 21.6N 128.4W 23.0N 129.5W 25.6N 128.9W
SHIP 59KTS 51KTS 47KTS 40KTS
DSHP 59KTS 51KTS 47KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 120.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 118.6W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 116.9W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 60NM

First hurricane of the season for the EPAC! Rally is on!

[Jim Cantore]

Looks impressive should be a hurricane in 12 hours I think

[gkrangers]

Looks impressive should be a hurricane in 12 hours I think

Already is.

[Jim Cantore]

just upgraded

there ya go

[Gorky]

2nd hurricane... Don't forget Adrian!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Eastern Pacific is now tied with hurricanes with the Atlatnic. Even so HRD data shows Cindy was one.

[clfenwi]

2nd hurricane... Don't forget Adrian!

Too late, I already did!