OKay i am a newbie and very confused too...
Florida
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Anyways, I never said a FL landfall is IMPOSSIBLE. Yeah models could shift that's a good point. I will monitor this scenario.
Anyhow, my new info indicates that the ridge could strengthen.
This differs from my earlier forecast due to the fact that I did not have this info back then. So anyways FL watch out. Everyone up to Virginia from here watch out.
I will generate new opinions as I get this new info. Sorry for the flip-flop
folks but some unanticipated data was the cause.
Anyhow, my new info indicates that the ridge could strengthen.
This differs from my earlier forecast due to the fact that I did not have this info back then. So anyways FL watch out. Everyone up to Virginia from here watch out.
I will generate new opinions as I get this new info. Sorry for the flip-flop
folks but some unanticipated data was the cause.
0 likes
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
okey doke, my new unofficial projected path takes the system into land in SE Georgia based on ridge calculations. If my prediction pans out NE
FL will feel impacts. But my cone of error is from West Palm Beach to
North Carolina.
okey doke, my new unofficial projected path takes the system into land in SE Georgia based on ridge calculations. If my prediction pans out NE
FL will feel impacts. But my cone of error is from West Palm Beach to
North Carolina.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
-
WeatherEmperor
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
-
Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7404
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Something else to think about:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Even a strong Cat 3/4 can be influenced by a ridge.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Even a strong Cat 3/4 can be influenced by a ridge.
0 likes
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Just Joking.-
WeatherEmperor
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
wxwonder12 wrote:I think the Sunshine State is in the clear
Again, after Jeanne last year, until I SEE a turn to the WNW or NW; I am not comfortable with "models" and "projections".
Seeing is believing to me and everyone can guess all they want but until it actually gets North of my 26.6 (actually about 28.0 to take me out of the worst part); I'm watching closely!
0 likes
-
feederband
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3423
- Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
- Location: Lakeland Fl
-
elysium
Well, actually Tampabay, the ridge has pretty much collapsed on the western periphery. You might have gotten hold of the 12Z, however, most of the models are about 24 hrs. behind, so the GFS will not show the collapse until 00Z at the earliest.
You can only use model guidance for assistance in eliminating some of the possibilities. Model guidance also points you in the right direction on what to look for often enough to make it indispensable as a navigational tool. But you never take the models at face value. The models are almost always wrong. They are excellent for dectecting possible trends, but even the validity of an indicated trend must not be so readily assumed if it is based on a particular model or other.
The models will show the ridge collapse in the 00Z or 06Z. There are a couple of waves east to watch however.
You can only use model guidance for assistance in eliminating some of the possibilities. Model guidance also points you in the right direction on what to look for often enough to make it indispensable as a navigational tool. But you never take the models at face value. The models are almost always wrong. They are excellent for dectecting possible trends, but even the validity of an indicated trend must not be so readily assumed if it is based on a particular model or other.
The models will show the ridge collapse in the 00Z or 06Z. There are a couple of waves east to watch however.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: wwizard and 33 guests