IRENE COULD THREATEN EAST COAST

[george_r_1961]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well its time for me to go out an a limb now and call Irene an EC threat. Apparently the weakness is the ridge is not sufficient to pull Irene to the north and the front diving out of Canada may not make it far enough south and east to prevent at least a glancing blow at the Carolinas and possibly the Delmarva. The greatest threat is to the NC Outer Banks. Expect a continued WNW course for the next few days followed by GRADUAL recurvature..then as Irene nears the NC coast a sharp turn to the right which will hopefully occur before landfall not probably not soon enough to keep her from affecting land. Keep in mind this is a long range forecast made on a difficult storm with uncertain future synoptic conditions. Interests along the US east coast from the Delmarva southward to Georgia should monitor the track of Irene. As far as intensity goes I expect some significant strengthening in the short term then a leveling off as Irene nears the coast and comes under the influence of the aforementioned frontal trough.
I do not believe Irene will become a major hurricane but Cat 1 is possible. Intensity forecasts are even more problematic than track forecasts and with the uncertainty in the track ( the track will have a direct bearing on how strong she gets) the intensity forecast is made with low confidence. More later.

[gkrangers]

This is the first I've heard of this.

[george_r_1961]

If im wrong i'll take my crow with ranch dressing and a slice of lemon.

[superfly]

That's not going out on a limb...

[WindRunner]

I'd say cat1 is likely and cat2 possible. And I agree with leaving FL out of the target, it's going to curve too much for that to be a problem.

[Lindaloo]

Excellent forecast, george!

[Lindaloo]

This is the first I've heard of this.

Not anymore.

[feederband]

If im wrong i'll take my crow with ranch dressing and a slice of lemon.

Miller Lite goes good with crow also...

[gkrangers]

This is the first I've heard of this.

Not anymore.

It was sarcasm..since landfall is slowly becoming the general consensus.

[storms in NC]

I'll have your plate ready for you

[EDR1222]

If im wrong i'll take my crow with ranch dressing and a slice of lemon.

Miller Lite goes good with crow also...

Good combination!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'd say cat1 is likely and cat2 possible. And I agree with leaving FL out of the target, it's going to curve too much for that to be a problem.

I would not rule out Florida. I currently disagree with the models as well as NHC's track. Here's why: Irene's motion has consistently been westbound, and the models tend to have a bias in that they depict weaker ridges than what actually pans out. This could hit anywhere from SE FL to Virginia based on the ridge and a trough expected to participate around 5-7 days from now.

To the OP: Great forecast though

[feederband]

Just have to figure out what part of the circulation is actually her...

[hurricanedude]

Wilmington NC south to Daytona FL is my target....focussing really hard on the the area from Myrtle Beach to Savannah

[Stratusxpeye]

Wilmington NC south to Daytona FL is my target....focussing really hard on the the area from Myrtle Beach to Savannah

Myrtle Beach to Savannah was my original estimate as well somewhere in the ga/sc border. Doesnt happean often but may be possible this year with irene. I though NHC had a turn to the west at the end of the period not a hook out right? Is this correct.

[WeatherEmperor]

Wilmington NC south to Daytona FL is my target....focussing really hard on the the area from Myrtle Beach to Savannah

Wilmington NC hasnt had a hurricane since Floyd in 1999. Who knows when they will get their next one but they gotta keep a close eye.

<RICKY>

[ncbird]

This system sure is determined to go somewhere at least close to the US. All its been through and still here, makes me very nervous that it could really blow up when it reaches more favorable conditions. I have all but given up trying to figure out just where it will go. Just too many "if this happens" for my amateur knowledge to put together, so will leave that to the pro's. Just know I am going to keep a close eye on it (and really think everyone along the entire SE US Coast should do the same). At this point I think almost anything is possible, and only time is going to tell.

NCBird

[Trader Ron]

I have some Crow in my freezer from last year...

[du1st]

If this storm had atomphospic conditions going for it it would be a monstor.

[kmanWX]

If im wrong i'll take my crow with ranch dressing and a slice of lemon.

well we see how it would play out but I think it would recurved before it reaches within vicinity of the east coast.