Florida
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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stormandan28
- Tropical Storm
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Florida
dont worry about Irene I think were out of the clear on this but if I was N Carolina I would start paying attention
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
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Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11166
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- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
1 question, why do you feel more comfortable if the track is shifting more west? shouldnt you feel less comfortable
Last edited by Ivanhater on Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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WeatherEmperor
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: South Florida
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Ivanhater- yesterday the models showed a recurve back to the west, today they are in more agreement with making this a Carolinas threat.
I changed my mind from a few hours ago based on these new
models.
FL landfall is still possible...but not as likely IMO...esp. for Tampa Bay feeling strong impacts
If this pulls a Jeanne or Frances I'll have my crow with spices
and tomato sauce.
But bermuda high looks like it will be weaker than I originally thought.
I changed my mind from a few hours ago based on these new
models.
FL landfall is still possible...but not as likely IMO...esp. for Tampa Bay feeling strong impacts
If this pulls a Jeanne or Frances I'll have my crow with spices
and tomato sauce.
But bermuda high looks like it will be weaker than I originally thought.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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wxwonder12
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 199
- Joined: Thu May 12, 2005 11:29 am
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Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11166
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Ivanhater- yesterday the models showed a recurve back to the west, today they are in more agreement with making this a Carolinas threat.
I changed my mind from a few hours ago based on these new
models.
FL landfall is still possible...but not as likely IMO...esp. for Tampa Bay feeling strong impacts
If this pulls a Jeanne or Frances I'll have my crow with spices
and tomato sauce.
just some advice.....dont change your mind based on 1 model run...the track has continued to move west so please do not take your guard down
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deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
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jax
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Ivanhater- yesterday the models showed a recurve back to the west, today they are in more agreement with making this a Carolinas threat.
I changed my mind from a few hours ago based on these new
models.
FL landfall is still possible...but not as likely IMO...esp. for Tampa Bay feeling strong impacts
If this pulls a Jeanne or Frances I'll have my crow with spices
and tomato sauce.
i thought you had a forcast with her coming to Tampa...
less than 24 hours ago...
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Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11166
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
read this floridians....DO NOT take your guard down...
FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT THE 12Z NCEP ENS MEAN IS
REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE PREFERRED 06Z GFS SOLN...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE 12Z NCEP MEAN FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE. PSNS FOR IRENE WERE BASED ON COORD WITH TPC. HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW KEEPING MORE RIDGING TO THE N OF IRENE AND STEERING IT ON A MORE SLY TRACK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASINGLY DIMINISHING ON THE SYS TURNING NWD TO THE DEGREE THAT THE COORD TRACK IMPLIES.
FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT THE 12Z NCEP ENS MEAN IS
REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE PREFERRED 06Z GFS SOLN...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE 12Z NCEP MEAN FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE. PSNS FOR IRENE WERE BASED ON COORD WITH TPC. HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW KEEPING MORE RIDGING TO THE N OF IRENE AND STEERING IT ON A MORE SLY TRACK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASINGLY DIMINISHING ON THE SYS TURNING NWD TO THE DEGREE THAT THE COORD TRACK IMPLIES.
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Here is the current WV loop - it seems that Irene is still struggling to maintain itself, after some increase in organization this morning.
Click on http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html to view.
Frank
Click on http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html to view.
Frank
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
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feederband
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Lakeland Fl
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL