Derecho wrote:The relatively new (at the time) dynamical models such as the AVN and GFDL accurately showed Andrew curving back west and hitting Florida, and fortunately NHC went with those models and had a very accurate forecast track for Andrew.
good post, I dont deny you that... I have a different opinion but heck opinions rock and I think you supported yours very well... I just want to note the part I quoted above. the AVN model had a westward bias. 8am 8/20 run had Andrew running into Cuba and also accelerated Andrew to the point where the 120hr forecast mark was 400 to 500 miles west of all the other models... when Andrew turned northwestward all the AVN model did was take it's original forecast and move it northward... and yes it was lucky that the NHC decided to go with the AVN 24hrs later when it DID have Andrew running into south Florida. But I just want to note that the AVN, 24 hours before it was on track, was 200-300 miles south and 400-500 miles west of Andrews actual track.
