Latest GFS Has a System Impacting South FL Down the Road

[gatorcane]

See if for yourself ...comments welcome

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml

[jax]

as a rain storm... 1008mb

[gatorcane]

Hey some rain and wind would be nice...it's so hot here.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, doesn't the GFS disappate it by then?

[Ivanhater]

that shows a system making landfall in 13 days, cant be irene

[gkrangers]

I don't see a surface reflection for Irene impacting the east coast of Florida...if you look at the upper levels, its easier to see...but very difficult to tell what the GFS does with Irene past 96 hours...and then its north of the Bahamas.

[Hyperstorm]

That is NOT Irene. That is another disturbance that GFS develops behind Irene. Notice that it does so TWO weeks from today. If it were Irene, it would show it hitting in a week or less.

Don't trust any model that far out into the future...

[WindRunner]

Irene's remnants can't be tracked on the GFS. I just tried.

[WeatherEmperor]

lol boca-chris, you got a little too excited here. I dont think that is Irene at all.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

I don't see a surface reflection for Irene impacting the east coast of Florida...if you look at the upper levels, its easier to see...but very difficult to tell what the GFS does with Irene past 96 hours...and then its north of the Bahamas.

Yes, I agree ... which is why I only posted about 96 hours in the other thread.

[gatorcane]

yeah you guys are right....i'm not sure what it is doing.

[gkrangers]

yeah you guys are right....i'm not sure what it is doing.

Change the thread title maybe?

[gatorcane]

yeah I can't but a moderator can

[Ivanhater]

yeah you guys are right....i'm not sure what it is doing.

Change the thread title maybe?

ya make it, possible jose making landfall

[wxwonder12]

Local mets in Palm Beach news at noon said that we would have to really watch this one as half the models have Irene effecting S Fl. I don't see any models that have Irene comming even close to S. Fl.

[EDR1222]

I didn't see any that had it heading toward Florida either.

[Frank2]

I don't, either, but, I must admit that the situation is starting to give me the Hurricane Andrew quivers!

Back then, as late as Friday evening's newscast, some of the Miami OCM's had Andrew making landfall in North Carolina - Andrew arrived here very early Monday morning.

Frank

[Wthrman13]

as a rain storm... 1008mb

Global models do not have the resolution to properly resolve the inner-core of hurricanes, where most of the pressure gradient is. Thus, you will never see a global model representation of a hurricane with anything like a realistic central pressure: they will always show it too high. Never use a global model to try to predict hurricane intensity in this manner. However, since track is not very sensitive to intensity once the system itself becomes well established, the global models still give very useful information on track prediction.

Maybe someday in the future, when we are routinely running global models at 1 km horizontal resolution with advanced parameterizations for cloud physics, turbulence, and air-sea transfer, intensity of the model storms may be actually relevant to real life, but this is quite a ways away (at least 5-10 years)

[gatorcane]

Local mets in Palm Beach news at noon said that we would have to really watch this one as half the models have Irene effecting S Fl. I don't see any models that have Irene comming even close to S. Fl.

[southerngale]

yeah I can't but a moderator can

I changed it but you should be able to edit your own post and change it.