Jason's Tropical Outlook - Updated 10:00 AM CDT 8/11/05

[jasons2k]

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8/11/05 10:00 AM CDT
More detailed update will come later today, busy day at the office.

Basically no changes to ideas on Irene. I still expect her to be a hurricane in 48-72 hours from now. Carolinas are still #1 threat and anyone esp. from Brunswick, GA northward should continue to monitor.

Waves along the way now and GOM may be back to business in another week or so.

8/10/05 3:30 PM CDT SPECIAL UPDATE

With each passing hour, the threat for the US East coast is increasing. The models seem to be doing better with my ideas and they have shifted westward now with each run. While I do expect Irene to eventually turn NW, there is a real possibility that she may continue westward due to a strong ridge still located to the north. The strength of this ridge is not the only factor, but it's orientation around Irene will also influence her path; its orientation could also send Irene on a more southern track.

Intensity ideas remain, although a southern path means once she is a hurricane, I would then expect her to be a major hurricane before landfall.

Regardless, I do believe NHC will miss the wind forecast on the low side.

All interests on the US Eastern Seaboard should closely monitor Irene, including Florida and the Bahamas.

8/10/05 10:30 AM CDT

I basically have no changes to my thoughts yesterday.

Irene is starting to look better and is moving into a more favorable environment. Her development will be slow at first, but I expect Irene to reach Hurricane status in 72-96 hours. Once Irene becomes a hurricane, she may intensify rapidly, but it's simply too early to be more specific.

I expect Irene to continue on a westward path and gradually turn more to the NW. I am becoming more concerned that a Carolina landfall is likely with possible impacts up the east coast.

All interests on the Atlantic coast, particularly from Brunswick, GA Northward, should closely monitor the progress of Irene.

Still watching the disturbance in the Caribbean. Its convection is still in a diurnal cycle, and until (or if) the convection becomes better organized and more persistent, no development is expected.

The ITCZ (African waves) is also more active and will produce more significant threats in the coming weeks.


8/9/05 9:30 AM CDT

Will Irene be a tease?

Irene, similar to Franklin, is causing headaches for the eastern US. The models have consistently had a difficult time this season reconciling the ridge over the western Atlantic/Eastern US and its impacts on tropical systems.

Irene is barely holding together and is expected to meander westward for the next few days. I would not be surprised at some point if she becomes officially declassified, but I do not expect the system to completely dissipate. Then the forecast becomes a lot more tricky.

The gut call is for Irene to move westward and eventually move into a more favorable environment for development with less dry air and warmer SSTs. However, she will likely be too weak to be lifted by the initial shortwave expected to approach in about 3 days. I expect her to begin the rebuilding process as she moves closer to Florida. Once the system is better organized, I expect her to finally get picked up and move northward, scaring Florida but lifting away towards the N.

It is too early to speculate on US landfall prospects at this time, as any effects will be at least 5-7 days away, and so much can change between now and then.

The other area of interest is the Tropical Disturbance south of Hispaniola. It has continued westward and persisted for over 2 days now. Convection waned overnight but is increasing again. Expect this pattern to continue for the next few days as it moves towards the NW Caribbean. At that time, the system will need to be watched more closely, but for now no development is expected.

GOM still quiet.

8/8/05 10:00 AM CDT

Tropics swinging into mid season stride.

Still concerned that Irene needs to be watched as it may not simply turn and go away from the picture.

Tropical disturbance in the NE Caribbean needs to be monitored as this area of convection has persisted. As it moves westward, interests in the NW Caribbean and GOM should monitor its progress.

System remains off the GA/FL coast. Development is not expected but will need to be monitored for any possible impacts on the SE coast.

Looks like GOM is finally quiet for now.

All others areas including Harvey generally agree with NHC discussions and outlooks.

(8/9/05: edited for spell check and added date to yesterday's outlook)

[WindRunner]

Irene will definately not hed north with the recent downgrading.

[jasons2k]

I agree, moreso tonight

[deltadog03]

good job...yeah...im still not sold on the idea of a recurve...i think the models are handling the short term very piss poor right now...

[HURAKAN]

At this moment Irene seems to be moving straight WEST.

[Hurricaneman]

good job...yeah...im still not sold on the idea of a recurve...i think the models are handling the short term very piss poor right now...

youre right, it seems to be moving south of the model plots

[jasons2k]

Bumped for 8/9 update.

[jasons2k]

Bumped for 8/10 update. Comments welcome. Getting very concerned about Irene.

[WXFIEND]

So you think we could possibly see some effects from the remnants up here in NJ/NYC area? Isabel broughtt us 40-50mph gusts...

[jasons2k]

So you think we could possibly see some effects from the remnants up here in NJ/NYC area? Isabel broughtt us 40-50mph gusts...

Really too early to say, but if she does hit the carolinas and then run up the coast then yes.

[du1st]

what about north georgia?

[WXFIEND]

The Euro shows close but no cigar...




There will be a trough in the NE and with SW to NE winds, they should quickly sweep Irene out to sea. But there are NO guarantees yet.

Also, if the ridge is strong enough, it could supress the trough, but then Irene would go further inland.

To me, even though I'm an ameteur, it'd seem to me that to get any effects up here, Irene wuold have to go inland curve back out, hitting NYC coming off NJ.

[jasons2k]

what about north georgia?

When you say North GA I assume you mean Helen not Savannah. Depends on how far south she hits and then how quickly she turns, it's really way too early to know. At this point I would say doubtful but let's get a few days closer and get a landfall location (if there is one) located first. GA does need to monitor though, especially along the coast.

[jasons2k]

Hey wxfiend,

yes, we'll see. I don't think the models are doing very good with Irene, we'll just have to see in another 2 or 3 days what we got.

[jasons2k]

3:30 Special Update Posted at top

[jasons2k]

Updated 10AM at top.