Wave in central Caribbean will develop

[tailgater]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


This wave has been showing rotation over the last 2 or 3 days then it meet up with the mountains of DR and Haiti. I think it will skirt just south of Cuba while gaining convection, sheer from Upper High to it's SW will hamper develop until it reaches far NW Caribbean sea. IMHO we'll get at least an Invest out of this. Opinions welcome.

[WindRunner]

NHC doesn't like it one bit.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 20N MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE IS BENEATH N UPPER FLOW ON THE E EDGE OF AN UPPER HIGH
WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

[beachbum_al]

I was wondering about this wave when I was looking at the map. The NHC basically doesn't give it much hope but who knows. We will just have to wait and see what happens.

[wxwatcher91]

the NHC isnt giving any of these waves a fair chance... I cant believe the one of the few over in the east Atlantic arent in the TWO... they are looking very good right now... I dunno... I think it's the whole "there is a system already out there so we are ignoring the others"...

actually Im probably not being fair to the NHC... they probably know something about the E Atlantic waves that I dont... all I do know is that the waves are looking mighty fine right now

[x-y-no]

I really don't see this wave doing anything ... it has no meaningful convection, and the zone of sinking air ahead of it isn't especially conducive to developing such convection.

Jan

[du1st]

anything is possible!

[tailgater]

As forecast earlier, this wave has gained some convection today and the sheer will relax a little more tonight but it has tracked further north than I expected thus interacted more with Cuba, but by morning the T-storms will start re-firing and see a rather large blow up near or south of the Isle of Youth. Just me guessing.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, just because an area of convection blows up, it doesn't equate to a tropical depression or storm developing. This happens all the time and nothing ever comes from it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It's a nice display of thunderstorms on Color Infrared (at least it was earlier), and with additional moisture moving into the Carribean I cannot rule out slow development

[WindRunner]

[quote=From 8:05 TWD]A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH STRETCH IN A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...AND SOUTH
OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...ARE OCCURRING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF
80W ALSO ARE UNDER THE SAME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA.
[/quote]

It's nothing. Not even a mention of deep thunderstorms or lack thereof.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well perhaps storms might develop over the next few days, although nothing is imminent by any means

[tailgater]

It's nothing. Not even a mention of deep thunderstorms or lack thereof.
It just a prediction of something that could develop in 2 or 3 days, if it looks like there's nothing there tommorrow I'll admit I was wrong and nobody will get hurt.

[tailgater]

Alright time for me to admit it. This wave won't develop at least not in the Caribbean. I guess I should leave the forecasting of development out of nothing to the experts.