Tallahassee AWD, Concerns growing over Irene.........

[Dean4Storms]

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE.
WE FOLLOWED THE 06Z GFS. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AXIS
JUST S OF THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING FOR CONVECTION, AND THE SWLY FLOW SUPPORTS FAIRLY UNIFORM
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON. POP DISTRIBUTIONS WILL
HAVE A DIURNAL NATURE INDICATIVE OF SEA/LAND BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE TROPICS, THE WWD (LEFT) TREND IN THE TPC FORECAST FOR
IRENE IS A BIT DISTURBING. MOST OF THE MODELS BRING IRENE NWWD
BEFORE REACHING THE SERN U.S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM ASHORE
NEAR MYRTLE BEACH, SC, ON MON OF NEXT WEEK. NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE
SIMILAR. HOWEVER, IF THE RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH'S INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM, IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD COME WWD FURTHER TO THE S. IT IS NOTHING TO WORRY
ABOUT YET, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

[MyrtleBeachGal]

[bmoreorless]

THE WWD (LEFT) TREND IN THE TPC FORECAST FOR
IRENE IS A BIT DISTURBING. MOST OF THE MODELS BRING IRENE NWWD
BEFORE REACHING THE SERN U.S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM ASHORE
NEAR MYRTLE BEACH, SC, ON MON OF NEXT WEEK. NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE
SIMILAR.

Doesn't UKMET have Irene going due north and becoming a total fish?

[du1st]

that is not the best model and it may be to late for that.

[bmoreorless]

My point is that this forecast discussion says UKMET has Irene coming ashore at Myrtle Beach, when in reality UKMET does nothing of the kind -- at least not the last time I looked.

[jdray]

Interesting note about the ridge from NWS JAX:

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC TO 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL END UP OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC TO 500 MB MEAN
FLOW OUT OF THE SW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND SELY
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY BRING LIKELY POPS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DOWN INTO MORE CLIMO TYPE LEVELS OF 30-40% OVER THE WEEKEND. LESS
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BOOST INTO THE LOWER/MID
90S EACH DAY.

[WindRunner]

Maybe they got ahold of a 2-something-something hour UKMEt run and it bends sharply to the west after the approaching trof moves out and slams it into the NC/SC line.

[clfenwi]

My point is that this forecast discussion says UKMET has Irene coming ashore at Myrtle Beach, when in reality UKMET does nothing of the kind -- at least not the last time I looked.

Yeah, I don't see how the forecaster can call the UKMET's forecast "similar" to the ECMWF's as the UKMET runs Irene (on average) due north along 64.9/64.8 W after the 48 hr period.

http://www.metoffice.com/sec2/sec2cyclo ... wtnt80.txt

NOGAPS forecast is also further north and east than the ECMWF throughout the period...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=120

again, I don't see the similarity between it and the ECMWF forecast.

http://tinyurl.com/9vx82

beyond the general idea that Irene moves some distance to the west/northwest before making a hard right turn and zipping to the north.

[clfenwi]

Maybe they got ahold of a 2-something-something hour UKMEt run and it bends sharply to the west after the approaching trof moves out and slams it into the NC/SC line.

Negative. UKMET, unlike the GFS, only runs out to 144 hours.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/nw ... index.html

[Patrick99]

Right now, whatever model it was arguing for dissipation looks best to me. The track of such a pathetic storm is meaningless.

Unless some more convection starts to fire soon, she looks to me to be giving up the ghost.

[BayouVenteux]

Right now, whatever model it was arguing for dissipation looks best to me. The track of such a pathetic storm is meaningless.

Unless some more convection starts to fire soon, she looks to me to be giving up the ghost.

Respectfully, I have to ask...are you looking at the same system I am? I've just checked in on it after being preoccupied with other matters the last day or so, and to paraphrase Mark Twain, earlier reports of its demise may have been a tad exaggerated.

IMHO, Irene looks to have survived her TUTT trauma and in 72 hours or so, it very well may be "game on".

[skysummit]

Right now, whatever model it was arguing for dissipation looks best to me. The track of such a pathetic storm is meaningless.

Unless some more convection starts to fire soon, she looks to me to be giving up the ghost.

Respectfully, I have to ask...are you looking at the same system I am? I've just checked in on it after being preoccupied with other matters the last day or so, and to paraphrase Mark Twain, earlier reports of its demise may have been a tad exaggerated.

IMHO, Irene looks to have survived her TUTT trauma and in 72 hours or so, it very well may be "game on".

Highly agree. She has looked her best today and now she's going through cycles. These things happen with developing systems. I guess some people just expect Cat 4's from waves within 36 hours.

[FlSteel]

I wonder if that "rare" scenario is setting up to allow a cane to hit the northeast Florida/ south Georgia area? I know we here in Jax have not had a direct hit in 41 years from the atlantic side.

[Scott_inVA]

The reference to UKMET/EGRR in the quoted AFD is incorrect.

Here's the UKMET/EGRR summary of tracks for AL092005 (valid through 0Z 8/10/05:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/ukmet.png

BTW, the UKMET has been WRETCHED this year. Very disappointing.

Scott

[gatorcane]

The reference to UKMET/EGRR in the quoted AFD is incorrect.

Here's the UKMET/EGRR summary of tracks for AL092005 (valid through 0Z 8/10/05:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/ukmet.png

BTW, the UKMET has been WRETCHED this year. Very disappointing.

Scott

Wow, these models have been so far off with her...great graphic!

[WeatherEmperor]

wow the UKMET really laid an egg with Irene. Which ones did the best so far? I heard the BAM models were doing pretty good as well as the ECWMF.

<RICKY>

[Scott_inVA]

wow the UKMET really laid an egg with Irene. Which ones did the best so far? I heard the BAM models were doing pretty good as well as the ECWMF.

<RICKY>

Top 5 with this storm, Overall error with at least 10 runs:

1. Official TPC
2. GFTI
3. NGXI (NOGAPS aviation tracker)
4. DSHP
5. GFS

BAMS and BAMD are very close with the shallow model performing slightly better inside 72 hours.

note this is not official but calculations made at Mid-Atlantic WX.com. Your mileage may vary

[sponger]

I find it interesting that the Bamm also had the better hold on Andrew. If this spins up to a major the Bamm will be worthless but it has done an excellent job on a shallow system.