Calling all EXPERT METS

[wxcrazytwo]

I have a few questions for ya:

1. Is Irene Intensifying?
2. Where will it go, since it has passed the 50 degree line?
3. Will it turn NW, because it is intensifying, if any?
4. If it is intensifying, and because the timing of it, will it go poleward (meaning northwes)? and
5. If it does shoot westward, then NW, will this make the models look disgraceful, since all the models were trendingn this sucker fishy??ALL COMMENTS WELCOME, I GUESS...

[wxcrazytwo]

Wow, no takers. I guess no one knows...

[dwg71]

1. Yes
2. NHC track shows a track that will reach as far west as 70W and then head out to sea.
3. It is forecast to turn NW. in about 48 - 72 Hours.
4. Intensity would lead toward the poles, but its not the dominate steering feature.
5. Models performance is still up in the air. Its a depression, models cant forecast them with as much accuracy as more developed storms. So I would say disgraceful, no.

[wxcrazytwo]

1. Yes
2. NHC track shows a track that will reach as far west as 70W and then head out to sea.
3. It is forecast to turn NW. in about 48 - 72 Hours.
4. Intensity would lead toward the poles, but its not the dominate steering feature.
5. Models performance is still up in the air. Its a depression, models cant forecast them with as much accuracy as more developed storms. So I would say disgraceful, no.

Thanks, dude..

[deltadog03]

I have a few questions for ya:

1. Is Irene Intensifying?
2. Where will it go, since it has passed the 50 degree line?
3. Will it turn NW, because it is intensifying, if any?
4. If it is intensifying, and because the timing of it, will it go poleward (meaning northwes)? and
5. If it does shoot westward, then NW, will this make the models look disgraceful, since all the models were trendingn this sucker fishy??ALL COMMENTS WELCOME, I GUESS...

well i am in school to be one so here is my best guess..
1. yes, re-organizing first
2. not sure
3. depends on the ridge building in
4. again 3's answer
5. not really, cuz its really a crapshoot...there are 3 models shooting west

[dwg71]

I have a few questions for ya:

1. Is Irene Intensifying?
2. Where will it go, since it has passed the 50 degree line?
3. Will it turn NW, because it is intensifying, if any?
4. If it is intensifying, and because the timing of it, will it go poleward (meaning northwes)? and
5. If it does shoot westward, then NW, will this make the models look disgraceful, since all the models were trendingn this sucker fishy??ALL COMMENTS WELCOME, I GUESS...

well i am in school to be one so here is my best guess..
1. yes, re-organizing first
2. not sure
3. depends on the ridge building in
4. again 3's answer
5. not really, cuz its really a crapshoot...there are 3 models shooting west

BAM models and the NHC in house are not reliable with a storm in this area. The BAM models are deep tropics models, and NHC model is on crack. There isnt much reliable model guidence out there.

[deltadog03]

the bam models are designed for the depth of a storm not locations on where the storm happens to be.... bamS is good for weak/shallow systems....bamM is for a TD/TS...and bamD is good for hurricanes...get the facts correct please before you post something like that...here is the link on the tropical models i suggest you read them..

http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm

[dwg71]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I would remind everyone that the BAMM/BAMD models are generally not the best ones to use out of the deep tropics. They don't really employ much in the way of physics. And they both assume a strong tropical storm.

[ROCK]

the bam models are designed for the depth of a storm not locations on where the storm happens to be.... bamS is good for weak/shallow systems....bamM is for a TD/TS...and bamD is good for hurricanes...get the facts correct please before you post something like that...here is the link on the tropical models i suggest you read them..

http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm

Amen to that.....

can't help remember the quote "give it up boys its a fish" few days ago. That crow is going to taste good huh....