The ridge will hold.....

[fci]

As I recall (I know someone will correct me if I'm wrong the BAMM has been pretty reliable so far this season.

Not sure i would agree with you.
BAMM had Franklin coming into the E coast of Florida.

[frederic79]

One observation regarding what Dixie mentioned yesterday about Andrew. Yesterday Irene was almost history and was located about 500 miles north of Andrew's track (at the same longitude). Today her location is about 4 degrees south and 13 degrees east of Andrew's northernmost Atlantic position. Depending on the strength of the ridge and Irene's potential to bypass the trough, it's not beyond the scope of reason to think Irene could reach the same spot where Andrew became a hurricane, around 26N and 67W. That's were it gets interesting, given the conditions (SST's, anticyclone, low shear) ahead of Irene.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


A wet MJO is now crossing into GOM and will move Eastbound and reach the E. Atlantic by Friday. Folks, IMO we need to be very watchful of Irene. The environment could be almost perfect in 2 days.

OUR LULL will be history IMO in 1-3 days.

[Foladar]

Jeez, was gonna go on vacation (from Miami) to Orlando next week

[dwg71]

Jeez, was gonna go on vacation (from Miami) to Orlando next week

Go, never pass up a chance to vist the greatest place on the planet....Walt Disney World. Be sure to hop over to Universal Studios and expierence "Twister", they have a "real life tornada' in that there yonder ride with a flying cow -yeeehaawww"!!

[wxcrazytwo]

How fast does the MJO move anyways??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Usually it's pretty slow, it took 2 weeks for the moist part to reach the W. Atlantic, but according to forecast models, it should spread to the African coast by Friday, which is why we could be watching Irene along with 3 powerful waves.

[storm4u]

Jeez, was gonna go on vacation (from Miami) to Orlando next week

Go, never pass up a chance to vist the greatest place on the planet....Walt Disney World. Be sure to hop over to Universal Studios and expierence "Twister", they have a "real life tornada' in that there yonder ride with a flying cow -yeeehaawww"!!

when i went i had to go in there twice!! lol

[Javlin]

I find it funny that only one or two of the models are picking up on anything other than a WNW motion at this time.The extrapolation even shows the WSW motion at the current time.I would think then we have some poor initialization if i am not mistaken.


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[dixiebreeze]

From today's NWS update Miami:

"Previous discussion...weak ridge over the Atlantic not quite
extending as far west as Florida. This is resulting in light winds
at all levels over South Florida. Little change expected in this
pattern through the next week. The GFS has been suggesting the ridge
will strengthen westward by the weekend. While each day it pushes
this transition a little further back...will still accept some
strengthening of ridge as a plausible scenario. Thus...lessening
probability of precipitation on the East Coast by next weekend and turning the winds more
out of the east (albeit still light)."

The ridge is holding and moving west.

[x-y-no]

I think it's a done deal. Looking at the WV loop, the trough axis is pretty much due north of Irene now. The connection has been missed, and now the big questions are how much development do we get, and what part of the coast is affected.

If I were forced to bet, I'd say the Carolinas, but I'd say even Florida is still in the running.

Jan

[clfenwi]

I find it funny that only one or two of the models are picking up on anything other than a WNW motion at this time.The extrapolation even shows the WSW motion at the current time.I would think then we have some poor initialization if i am not mistaken.


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, and LBAR are all initialized with the same human input.

In the case of the 12Z models the initialized position was 22.2 North 53.4 West on a heading of 265° and a forward speed of 8 knots.

The other models on the chart are interpolated models. They are essentially the 06Z model runs adjusted for the 12Z position.

[Sanibel]

1) Never was this dissipating. You can see the surface spiral on visible.


2) If the ridge builds west you'll see the big ULL move out of the way. Right now the ULL is in a south flow east of Florida that would recurve any approaching storm.


3) Something is causing Irene to flare. Either preferrable SST's or a slacking in shear. (or both).


4) The difference between the furthest left and right models shows they aren't really sure.

[Frank2]

Re: x-y-no's post

I agree with Sanibel - apparently something caused the system to flare up from it's very weakened state early this morning, but, the environment ahead of Irene is not that favorable for additional development (note the northerly shear ahead of the system), and per the NHC advisory, shows modest intensification through 120 hours.

Click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

As far as the east coast - much still would have to take place (including the movement of the presently stationary ULL east of Jacksonville) for Irene to have any chance at coming near - definitely not a sure thing at this time.

Frank

[Sanibel]

Perhaps the flare-up is due to Irene tapping that humid WV air to her SE and S going all the way down to the equator. Maybe she finally shed the SAL layer.


Try a GHCC WV of the Atlantic/Caribbean. The WV situation in front of Irene has improved markedly. It looks like the gun powder scenario when Irene first formed.

She has good curved convection. Maybe a notch up in Dvorak.

[WeatherEmperor]

Perhaps the flare-up is due to Irene tapping that humid WV air to her SE and S going all the way down to the equator. Maybe she finally shed the SAL layer.


Try a GHCC WV of the Atlantic/Caribbean. The WV situation in front of Irene has improved markedly. It looks like the gun powder scenario when Irene first formed.

She has good curved convection. Maybe a notch up in Dvorak.

I agree. She is slowly slowly getting better organized and it will take time for a center to become more obvious.

<RICKY>

[EDR1222]

She is looking better this afternoon. I agree that the ULL east of Florida will become a factor for Irene. It looked like it was moving NE earlier this morning.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Deja vu with that ridge, always uncertainties with the ridge

[WeatherEmperor]

Deja vu with that ridge, always uncertainties with the ridge

first it strenghtens then weakens then strenghtens then weakens. over and over again.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

Re: x-y-no's post

I agree with Sanibel - apparently something caused the system to flare up from it's very weakened state early this morning, but, the environment ahead of Irene is not that favorable for additional development (note the northerly shear ahead of the system), and per the NHC advisory, shows modest intensification through 120 hours.

Click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

As far as the east coast - much still would have to take place (including the movement of the presently stationary ULL east of Jacksonville) for Irene to have any chance at coming near - definitely not a sure thing at this time.

Frank

Yeah, forecasting things like where that ULL will be in a couple of days is always a bear. I'll agree that if it stays stationary for that period of time, that'll tear the system up again. It may back away W or SW though ...