MW
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4430
- Age: 44
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Howdy…thanks for asking…
I thing the HPC discussion (see other post) deserves serious consideration. The troughing progged by the 12Z GFS and the 12Z UKMET seems a bit overdone…and we very well see these models come back into line overnight. The NOGAPS/EURO solutions appear to have the best handle on things for now. The 12Z GFDL is up to it’s old tricks and once again drops Irene in 60 hours. Be interesting to see the 12Z Euro in another hour or so…
It also looks like we’re seeing some outflow try to develop to the west of the center and deeper convection is starting to develop/persist south and west of the center…both signs that the shear has let up some and that the system is perhaps getting better organized.
If I were writing a forecast on this system…I would follow the south 1/3 of the guidance envelope and bend the track back to the west late in the forecast period…with a 120 hour position somewhere in the neighborhood of 29N 70W or so. This would put Irene in a spot to potentially threaten the SE US into next week…with the primary concern right now being the Carolinas. But it is still very…very early.
MW
I thing the HPC discussion (see other post) deserves serious consideration. The troughing progged by the 12Z GFS and the 12Z UKMET seems a bit overdone…and we very well see these models come back into line overnight. The NOGAPS/EURO solutions appear to have the best handle on things for now. The 12Z GFDL is up to it’s old tricks and once again drops Irene in 60 hours. Be interesting to see the 12Z Euro in another hour or so…
It also looks like we’re seeing some outflow try to develop to the west of the center and deeper convection is starting to develop/persist south and west of the center…both signs that the shear has let up some and that the system is perhaps getting better organized.
If I were writing a forecast on this system…I would follow the south 1/3 of the guidance envelope and bend the track back to the west late in the forecast period…with a 120 hour position somewhere in the neighborhood of 29N 70W or so. This would put Irene in a spot to potentially threaten the SE US into next week…with the primary concern right now being the Carolinas. But it is still very…very early.
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4430
- Age: 44
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
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