QUIKSCAT says wide open wave

[Ivanhater]

Oy - well, they don't call meteorology an inexact science for nothing!

Earlier this morning the system looked like it was finished, but now it seems to be making a comback.

Oh, well,

Frank

aint that the tuth, the storm is crazy

[MiamiensisWx]

I thought it was done, too. Wow, the dry air (and apparently shear) may have decreased. Here's the water vapor image (latest):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

Conditions appear to habe become somewhat more favorable. The latest floater of Irene appears to show a new center of circulation attempting to develop. Some convection is firing near it.

Still, conditions are not one hundred percent optimal. MJO, SAL, ULL, water vapor, etc.... all that has to check in. One step in a better direction, though. See if it holds... along with Irene...

[jrod]

What a difference 3 more satellite frames can make! As I posted earlier I thought it became an open wave but now it looks like its trying to stregthen. It looks like there is some warmer water ahead of it also, right now it looks like conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for Irene.

[WindRunner]

Looks like a surefire comeback for now (according to the NHC, er, I mean HPC). That IR pic showing the pop of convection on the west side of the storm makes the new circ easier to find.

[tallywx]

Reminds me of Andrew. Models split evenly between it turning westward versus going out to sea. NHC holding the middle ground (WNW) for as long as possible. Recon. not being able to fix a center in Andrew for over 24 hours as its central pressure rose to 1015 mb. Then BOOM.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest satellite images starting to reveal a more pronounced turning going on near 22N 53W. I believe we're seeing the beginnings of a Mid-Level Circulation near those coordinates. This should continue to spin up as I see it. Conditions are better where this turning is evident, than where the "old" center was.

I still see a disorganization of the system as a whole, but is definitely undergoing some structural changes today.

[Sanibel]

Quickscat missed it, that's all.

The storm has better curvature now.

It flared better convection right in the middle of the dry area...

[CronkPSU]

Reminds me of Andrew. Models split evenly between it turning westward versus going out to sea. NHC holding the middle ground (WNW) for as long as possible. Recon. not being able to fix a center in Andrew for over 24 hours as its central pressure rose to 1015 mb. Then BOOM.

i wish people would stop saying this, can we call it mini-andrew or something so any dumb media folks who happen by this place don't start spreading an andrew like storm approaching the east coast reports

[Sanibel]

Reminds me of Andrew. Models split evenly between it turning westward versus going out to sea. NHC holding the middle ground (WNW) for as long as possible. Recon. not being able to fix a center in Andrew for over 24 hours as its central pressure rose to 1015 mb. Then BOOM.

I was thinking the same thing, however the synoptic above it looks too weak for a strong ridge to drive it west.

[vbhoutex]

Reminds me of Andrew. Models split evenly between it turning westward versus going out to sea. NHC holding the middle ground (WNW) for as long as possible. Recon. not being able to fix a center in Andrew for over 24 hours as its central pressure rose to 1015 mb. Then BOOM.

i wish people would stop saying this, can we call it mini-andrew or something so any dumb media folks who happen by this place don't start spreading an andrew like storm approaching the east coast reports

As with your opinion about this everyone else here is due there opinion and/or observations.

If some media person happens by here(and we know they do) and uses something that is not official from one of our posters posts then they are doing something very stupid as STORM2K is definitely not an official source of information concerning the tropics, despite the fact that a lot of very good and very accurate information is posted here. Your concern is one of the reasons that we require our disclaimer on any forecast posted here that is not from an official source and identified as such.

[gkrangers]

Isabel might be a better "analog" for Irene.

Intensity is way different, but the track is very similar, and Irene could very possibly continue to ghost Isabel all the way to the coast.

[Derek Ortt]

this has become ebtter organized this afternoon and I have no doubt that a new center has formed near 22.0N and 53.0W

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing something funny on visible. One set of surface spirals goes into a weak center up near the center west part of the convection. The other is under the strong mid-vortex that seems to be muscling the storm together at the south end of the convection.

I can't tell if this is a relocation north to the weak center like it did a few days ago, or one to the southern center - which would be a whole new deal. Cyclo-logic would dictate a north jump and not a south one - right?

[superfly]

I'm seeing something funny on visible. One set of surface spirals goes into a weak center up near the center west part of the convection. The other is under the strong mid-vortex that seems to be muscling the storm together at the south end of the convection.

I can't tell if this is a relocation north to the weak center like it did a few days ago, or one to the southern center - which would be a whole new deal. Cyclo-logic would dictate a north jump and not a south one - right?

The northern one was the old center. The southern one will probably be the new center.

[ThunderMate]

Yes, Isabel seems more likely for Irene to be compared to as the track may be the same which is very likely. I do think intensity will blow up over gulf stream and cause lots of problems for North Caroloina and Virginia which i have been saying for over a week now!!

[tallywx]

Since this entire thread was about intensity ("wave or not"), that's why I drew the comparison to Andrew and its state of being at a particular juncture (I can't think of any other Cape Verde storms since Andrew that pulsed for this long in a weak state with a north of 20N yet westward track). That's why I mentioned Andrew...for the current state of being, not what Andrew eventually did (because that involved an intense ridge that built in, which most likely won't happen here).

[Sanibel]

Looking further I think the weak west center surface spiral is the true center and the south vortex is a sheared reflection in the convection.

Irene looks like she could lose her convection once again. There's a trough remnant in front of her pinching south. Irene's thin NW surface bands are reacting to it with a straight edge.

[Frank2]

Irene looks like she could lose her convection once again. There's a trough remnant in front of her pinching south.

I just noticed that, too - perhaps the more favorable environment was only a short-lived passage through that particular area - perhaps a col, between the SAL to the southeast, and the ULL to the northwest.

Frank

[Sanibel]

If it jumps NW you'll know what did it (I'm not saying it will).

[wxwatcher91]

Reminds me of Andrew. Models split evenly between it turning westward versus going out to sea. NHC holding the middle ground (WNW) for as long as possible. Recon. not being able to fix a center in Andrew for over 24 hours as its central pressure rose to 1015 mb. Then BOOM.

I there has been contraversy around the above statement and so to avoid anyone biting my head off I'd like to make it clear I'm not supporting or denouncing this statement
just some of the facts:

the following is the history of 1992 Andrew and the history (so far) of 2005 Irene. the bolded text is where Irene is now and where Andrew was closest to Irene's current longitude. Note that at the same longitude, Irene is approximately 400miles north of where Andrew was

Irene:
21 GMT 08/04/05 12.7N 34.5W 30 1009 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/05/05 13.0N 35.2W 30 1009 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/05/05 14.4N 36.1W 30 1009 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/05/05 16.4N 37.3W 30 1010 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/05/05 17.0N 39.1W 30 1010 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/06/05 17.6N 40.6W 30 1010 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/06/05 17.7N 41.7W 35 1008 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/06/05 17.9N 42.3W 35 1008 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/06/05 19.0N 43.2W 35 1008 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/07/05 18.9N 44.3W 35 1008 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/07/05 19.6N 44.7W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/07/05 20.5N 45.5W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/07/05 21.1N 46.5W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/08/05 21.5N 47.7W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/08/05 21.9N 48.9W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/08/05 22.4N 50.7W 35 1009 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/08/05 22.5N 51.5W 35 1009 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/09/05 22.6N 52.7W 35 1009 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/09/05 22.5N 53.6W 35 1009 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/09/05 22.3N 53.9W 35 1009 Tropical Depression

Andrew
18 GMT 8/16/92 10.8N 35.5W 30 1010 Tropical Depression
0 GMT 8/17/92 11.2N 37.4W 35 1009 Tropical Depression
6 GMT 8/17/92 11.7N 39.6W 35 1008 Tropical Depression
12 GMT 8/17/92 12.3N 42.0W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 8/17/92 13.1N 44.2W 40 1003 Tropical Storm
0 GMT 8/18/92 13.6N 46.2W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
6 GMT 8/18/92 14.1N 48.0W 50 1001 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 8/18/92 14.6N 49.9W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 8/18/92 15.4N 51.8W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
0 GMT 8/19/92 16.3N 53.5W 50 1001 Tropical Storm
6 GMT 8/19/92 17.2N 55.3W 50 1002 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 8/19/92 18.0N 56.9W 50 1005 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 8/19/92 18.8N 58.3W 50 1007 Tropical Storm
0 GMT 8/20/92 19.8N 59.3W 45 1011 Tropical Storm
6 GMT 8/20/92 20.7N 60.0W 45 1013 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 8/20/92 21.7N 60.7W 45 1015 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 8/20/92 22.5N 61.5W 45 1014 Tropical Storm
0 GMT 8/21/92 23.2N 62.4W 50 1014 Tropical Storm
6 GMT 8/21/92 23.9N 63.3W 50 1010 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 8/21/92 24.4N 64.2W 60 1007 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 8/21/92 24.8N 64.9W 60 1004 Tropical Storm
0 GMT 8/22/92 25.3N 65.9W 65 1000 Tropical Storm
6 GMT 8/22/92 25.6N 67.0W 75 994 Category 1 Hurricane
12 GMT 8/22/92 25.8N 68.3W 90 981 Category 1 Hurricane
18 GMT 8/22/92 25.7N 69.7W 105 969 Category 2 Hurricane
0 GMT 8/23/92 25.6N 71.1W 125 961 Category 3 Hurricane
6 GMT 8/23/92 25.5N 72.5W 150 947 Category 4 Hurricane
12 GMT 8/23/92 25.4N 74.2W 165 933 Category 5 Hurricane
18 GMT 8/23/92 25.4N 75.8W 170 922 Category 5 Hurricane
0 GMT 8/24/92 25.4N 77.5W 145 930 Category 4 Hurricane
6 GMT 8/24/92 25.4N 79.3W 150 937 Category 4 Hurricane
12 GMT 8/24/92 25.6N 81.2W 130 951 Category 3 Hurricane
18 GMT 8/24/92 25.8N 83.1W 135 947 Category 4 Hurricane
0 GMT 8/25/92 26.2N 85.0W 135 943 Category 4 Hurricane
6 GMT 8/25/92 26.6N 86.7W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
12 GMT 8/25/92 27.2N 88.2W 140 946 Category 4 Hurricane
18 GMT 8/25/92 27.8N 89.6W 145 941 Category 4 Hurricane
0 GMT 8/26/92 28.5N 90.5W 145 937 Category 4 Hurricane
6 GMT 8/26/92 29.2N 91.3W 140 955 Category 4 Hurricane
12 GMT 8/26/92 30.1N 91.7W 90 973 Category 1 Hurricane
18 GMT 8/26/92 30.9N 91.6W 60 991 Tropical Storm
0 GMT 8/27/92 31.5N 91.1W 40 995 Tropical Storm
6 GMT 8/27/92 32.1N 90.5W 35 997 Tropical Depression
12 GMT 8/27/92 32.8N 89.6W 35 998 Tropical Depression
18 GMT 8/27/92 33.6N 88.4W 30 999 Tropical Depression
0 GMT 8/28/92 34.4N 86.7W 25 1000 Tropical Depression
6 GMT 8/28/92 35.4N 84.0W 25 1000 Tropical Depression