Irene Impacts On FL and the Atlantic Ridge

[gatorcane]

Model runs keeps shifting west each run. The medium BAM has Irene heading towards the FL east coast. Although Irene is weak now it has alot of time to restrengthen.

It all depends on the Bermuda High as to how/if Irene will impact FL but it's looking alot more likely than a couple of days ago where most people were convinced it would turn out to sea. I'm getting a little uneasy about this situation....

comments welcome.

[WeatherEmperor]

i wouldnt pull any hair out just yet. Irene is really really weak and unless it begins to super strenghten(i know there is no such word) then I would concern myself too much. Have you gotten the 12Z model runs yet? cant find them.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

Irene has alot of water ahead of her and the Gulf stream....

[ThunderMate]

Im thinking more of a carolina hit instead of florida because the ridge will weaken a bit allowing a curve towards the Carolinas and Virginia.

[gatorcane]

Irene is currently moving 265....not good..

[WeatherEmperor]

Irene is currently moving 265....not good..

are u seriuos? my gosh my eyes are horrible I cant see it. got a close up shot of that for me?

<RICKY>

[ThunderMate]

whats that mean? moving 265?

[WeatherEmperor]

whats that mean? moving 265?

That would be ever so slightly south of due west.

<RICKY>

[ThunderMate]

wow?!

[gatorcane]

Not many care about Irene now since it's not a hurricane BUT it has plenty of warm water ahead of it and conditions are expected to be more favorable for development down the road. It won't take much for it to restrengthen. Afterall, look how well it has survived in it's hostile environment so far? That's due mostly due the above normal SSTs supporting it. If this were a typical year it would have dissipated long ago.

[Scorpion]

True, if the models are correct about intensity and the BAM track occurs that would be very bad, would probably hit as a Cat 2 or more.

[gatorcane]

1200z models have shifted more west with more model taken it into the E coast of FL Check out Cycloneyes' main Irene thread.

[WeatherEmperor]

1200z models have shifted more west with more model taken it into the E coast of FL Check out Cycloneyes' main Irene thread.

Scary isnt it? Gosh FL has been like a tropical cyclone magnet these past few years.

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

Its kinda of nice really, it likely would come in as a strong Ts or so should be a nice breeze .

[WeatherEmperor]

Its kinda of nice really, it likely would come in as a strong Ts or so should be a nice breeze .

lol yeah as bad as it is for me to say it, it would be nice to have some nice breeze. I remember Irene 99' and that was very fun to be in with the wind blowing so nicely in my face. Just hope it doesnt become too strong now.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

Its kinda of nice really, it likely would come in as a strong Ts or so should be a nice breeze

Given it's nearly mid August with above normal SSTs, the Gulfstream, and conditions becoming more favorable for development down the road I would expect the possiblity of a major hurricane if it stayed on a course towards FL.

[Scorpion]

Yea you never know what will happen thats whats great about the tropics, if its a hurricane where the BAM says it is then that would be a problem.

[gatorcane]

Quote:
THERE IS REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM THE D+8 MEAN FOR A MORE
PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER THE E COAST THAN THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED 00Z GFS. THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN HAD SUPPORTED MORE RIDGING OVER THE E COAST...AND NOW THE 06Z GFS AND DGEX ARE EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THEIR RIDGING ON DAYS 6/MON AND 7/TUES THAN THE 00Z GFS. WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE E...A LESS PROGRESSIVE H5 TROF IS PREFERRED IN THE NWRN/N CNTRL CONUS THE SECOND HALF OF THE PD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS.



This is from the HPC's preliminary discussion on the overall setup for the next week (taken from another post)

[gatorcane]

Here is good picture of the ridge building. (from another post)




http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

[weatherwindow]

after reading the 500am discussion, i am of the opinion that most of this uncertainty will be resolved in about 72 hours.. if at that point, the progged trough leaves irene behind then it is time for concern for the EC. IMO, the trough, while not necessarily picking up irene, may impart some northwesterly motion. if so, this would most likely be a carolina problem. that said, if the westerly motion continues for any length of time(on the scale of a day or two), it would further reduce the chances of recurvature and, more importantly for fla, reduce any northwesterly motion that the trough might induce......rich