Irene Track Continue to Shifts More West

[gatorcane]

As expected the models continue to underestimate the Atlantic ridging...track has been shifted far to the left as of the 11am advisory...

[wxwatcher91]

actually I think its more that the models are overestimating the strength of Irene and now with her back to a depression she will stay more to a WNW path

[deltadog03]

good point...the weaker the further west it will push....

[Air Force Met]

As expected the models continue to underestimate the Atlantic ridging...track has been shifted far to the left as of the 11am advisory...

It's not the ridging they are having a problem with...it's the intensity. If this was a 50kt tropical storm...the track would not be shifting westward. This is (for all intents and purposes) a low level feature now...which changes the steering flow entirely. Irene is going to have a hard time lasting for another 24 hours. However, the wave Irene will have an easier time moving more west.

[WindRunner]

This could be interesting to track if it flares up again later with this westward movement now.

[Gorky]

The best thing long term for Irene would be to disorganise into a wave, and then try to regather herself as she nears the Bahamas. Then she;d reach all the warm water to intensify to a respectable level. This obviously is not the best thing long term for the East Coast though... I'd rather Irene strengthen now and break through the weak ridge Northwards to be honest, than risk this storm getting too far west and becoming a dangerous storm at a later date.

[vacanechaser]

As expected the models continue to underestimate the Atlantic ridging...track has been shifted far to the left as of the 11am advisory...

It's not the ridging they are having a problem with...it's the intensity. If this was a 50kt tropical storm...the track would not be shifting westward. This is (for all intents and purposes) a low level feature now...which changes the steering flow entirely. Irene is going to have a hard time lasting for another 24 hours. However, the wave Irene will have an easier time moving more west.

Great point... The ridge is not the problem... It has about 24-36 hours to pass the trough... If it stays weaker, it should certainly come further west throughout the week.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[dixiebreeze]

Irene is resting for a convection surge in about 2 days, IMHO. The east coast shouldn't take her for granted just yet.

[Ivanhater]

if it misses the trough wont it stay on a westward track till landfall?

[jasons2k]

I'm watching this one. IMO a lot of people got on the GFS bandwagon with Irene recurving but the GFS had been missing the ridge and the heat in the east for how many weeks now? System also never deepened and spun off like many do.

[Marilyn]

I'm hoping she will disappear!! go fish, or just go back where she came from ha ha

[Marilyn]

how come my smilies are showing up?

[deltadog03]

I have tried to say all along...that the weaker the system the further west it will push...thats largly due to the surface flow...which is out of the EAST.. I do believe the models ie.espcially the gfs, have really tried to strength this and push it out. now, that could VERY well happen...its still really a crapshoot as this point. I agree that too many people jumped on the gfs bandwagon.

[Frank2]

Considering it's current northerly position (nearing 23N), it's very unlikely to move beyond 60 or 65W before recurving.

Frank

P.S. The weakness in the subtropical ridge is currently very apparent here in South Florida - our normal easterly winds have been absent the past several days, with afternoon thunderstorms moving towards the east. There have been other years without a consistent easterly wind pattern in this area, and, those years usually did not include landfalling hurricanes on the Florida peninsula (probably because many recurved well east of the state).

[Windsong]

Irene is resting for a convection surge in about 2 days, IMHO. The east coast shouldn't take her for granted just yet.

Good point Dixie. Last time we took an Irene for granted, she shook a few people up.
Windsong

[Ivanhater]

maybe someone great at climo knows, has a tropical depression in this area ever recurved as a depression?

[Sanibel]

Irene past 51*W now.

Waters should continue to improve.

Atlantic north of Antilles continues to fail to support storms.

Dry area has moistened slightly.


This storm was early from the CV belt. The joke of 2005 is storms get triggered by the SST's but the supporting environment isn't there...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes Sanibel I have to agree- the joke clearly was the SSTs...I thought everything that hit the waters would explode...but this season has fooled me quite a bit. But now I realize the importance of the environment and will take that into account.

[Sanibel]

NEXRAD and myself were commenting on this in May. That the SST's could be there but the environment too hostile...

[clfenwi]

maybe someone great at climo knows, has a tropical depression in this area ever recurved as a depression?

Not much of a historical record for tropical depressions specifically.

Only two tropical depressions found since 1950 within 100 nautical miles of Irene's current position:

Earl of 1986 quickly fired up into a tropical storm then hurricane

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

The anomalous Alice of 1953/1954

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif