Does anyone recall.....

[dixiebreeze]

where Andrew was located when the Mets thought he would fizzle out -- but didn't?

[Derecho]

where Andrew was located when the Mets thought he would fizzle out -- but didn't?

Which Mets? The NHC never forecast Andrew to fizzle out; every single NHC advisory prior to Andrew hitting Florida forecast Andrew to intensify.

If you're talking about the location where Andrew was horribly sheared, it was over 500 miles south of where Irene is now.

[Brent]

This is not Andrew...

[wxwatcher91]

[dixiebreeze]

where Andrew was located when the Mets thought he would fizzle out -- but didn't?

Which Mets? The NHC never forecast Andrew to fizzle out; every single NHC advisory prior to Andrew hitting Florida forecast Andrew to intensify.

If you're talking about the location where Andrew was horribly sheared, it was over 500 miles south of where Irene is now.

Thanks Derecho, that's what I was talking about.

[vacanechaser]

This is not Andrew...

Didn't see anyone say it was.. However, it is pretty much the same scenario... Andrew was sheared heavily as it was moving west-northwest.. Seen it happen plenty of times as a system weakens and moves under the trough and comes westward. And it has been a topic on this board as how badly Andrew was sheared until it made out the other side of the trough..

I didnt think they were trying to compare Irene to Andrew..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KeyLargoDave]

I just checked the NHC report, it says Andrew almost lost its low-level center and had astonishingly high central pressure at one point. This was from Aug. 20-22, before it reached hurricane strength.

It went from about 19N to 25.6N and from 60 to 67 west in that time, and winds were around 40knots. Lots of things happened with ULL nearby to change the atmosphere, a strong high built north of it and we know what happened.

So, I think it's wrong to say "every single" NHC forecast called for intensification from the time it was a TD.

(I twice had more detailed posts underway with times, coords and a quote from the NHC report, but my system crashed both times <?!> before I could post. )

[dixiebreeze]

I just checked the NHC report, it says Andrew almost lost its low-level center and had astonishingly high central pressure at one point. This was from Aug. 20-22, before it reached hurricane strength.

It went from about 19N to 25.6N and from 60 to 67 west in that time, and winds were around 40knots. Lots of things happened with ULL nearby to change the atmosphere, a strong high built north of it and we know what happened.

So, I think it's wrong to say "every single" NHC forecast called for intensification from the time it was a TD.

(I twice had more detailed posts underway with times, coords and a quote from the NHC report, but my system crashed both times <?!> before I could post. )

Thanks KeyLargo, interesting comparison. I don't think Irene is over yet.

[WeatherEmperor]

I sure am glad a huge high pressure ridge is not in place now similar to with Andrew.

<RICKY>

[Derecho]

So, I think it's wrong to say "every single" NHC forecast called for intensification from the time it was a TD.

No it isn't; EVERY SINGLE NHC forecast prior to Andrew's landfall in Florida called for Andrew to intensify.

Even the advisories where the discussions speculated Andrew may not have an actual closed surface center, and discussed the horrible shear, the actual forecast intensities had Andrew intensifying.

All the discussions, with the forecasts, are at:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... /tropdisc/