230 PM Update on Atlantic Waves and Convection

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

230 pm update posted at bottom of page 2

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

A series of small tropical waves midway betw. Africa and central Atlantic have blown up convection
1. Complex near islands
2-4. the series of convective flare ups over the mid-atlantic just SSE of IRENE

IMO those convective clusters SSE of Irene are really getting organized. Moisture to return to Atlantic now through Friday and by Friday the moisture will have reached Africa.
Moist MJO to spread starting today and cover all the way to Africa by Friday Aug. 12 (see MJO post)

[Scorpion]

Maybe, but the lull might last until the 20th. Then things will likely explode.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

IMO might get active by tomorrow ya never know in the tropics

[Astro_man92]

The image won't load for me

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

astro_man92 here is the link:

http://images.newsx.cc/news8austin_medi ... -large.jpg

[Astro_man92]

"page cannot be desplayed" it says

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

astroman try this:
Look at the white flare ups SSE of Irene
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tropics.cgi

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Monster clusters over africa:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... LATEST.jpg

[Astro_man92]

now those work

[Stormcenter]

Maybe, but the lull might last until the 20th. Then things will likely explode.

The 20th?!?!?!?!?

I personally think we will have our 10th storm by the end of this week or sooner.

[hicksta]

nice waves south of irene.

[elysium]

Bravo Tampa Bay; very nice find. What you may have stumbled onto is a 'low belly'. Waves originating in the vicinities listed in which you found these, provided sufficient convection, tend to enter into the Caribbean via the lower Lesser Antilles and arc northwestward through the Yucatan corridor into the GOM. These systems are sometimes referred to as 'low belly hurricanes'.

Hurricane Camille was one such low belly storm. A common tendancy among low bellies is rapid intensification once in the GOM. Of late, many low bellies have been rapidly intensifying in the Caribbean itself for reasons beyond the explanation of modern day science. This does not mean, however, that every one such low belly storm is destine to achieve hurricane status, but today the failure rate among low bellies is, well, very, very low. Most low bellies do develop. Call it a sign of the times.

What you have found is a couple of low bellies; a low find, but certainly no small low find.

[ConvergenceZone]

good post Tampa. Of course I often go to bed wondering what those convective waves will look like in the morning, and check back only to find the convection is all but gone. That's happened alot to the waves that have moved off recently.



There's no doubt that it will get really busy, but I still don't think it will get real busy until late August, even though alot of people on here are thinking mid August. Just have to wait and see.

[Anonymous]

Bravo Tampa Bay; very nice find. What you may have stumbled onto is a 'low belly'. Waves originating in the vicinities listed in which you found these, provided sufficient convection, tend to enter into the Caribbean via the lower Lesser Antilles and arc northwestward through the Yucatan corridor into the GOM. These systems are sometimes referred to as 'low belly hurricanes'.

Hurricane Camille was one such low belly storm. A common tendancy among low bellies is rapid intensification once in the GOM. Of late, many low bellies have been rapidly intensifying in the Caribbean itself for reasons beyond the explanation of modern day science. This does not mean, however, that every one such low belly storm is destine to achieve hurricane status, but today the failure rate among low bellies is, well, very, very low. Most low bellies do develop. Call it a sign of the times.

What you have found is a couple of low bellies; a low find, but certainly no small low find.

Hurricane Charley '04 was a "low belly"

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you all for compliments!

Looks like convection lessened a little overnight, but given heating of the day and a small new burst occuring with the eastern-most wave, these systems bear watch. I'll check back around afternoon to see how these waves are doing.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good looking wave emerges off Africa: (note this cluster can't be seen in my original post since that view doesn't show this part):

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[Frank2]

The earlier disturbances mentioned above now look more like typical ITCZ convection, more than anything else.

Frank

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

12:00 PM 8/8/05 Update:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Now four somewhat well defined clusters have
manifested themselves. The first three seem to
have increased convection, while the fourth is
starting to increase it's convection. These areas
will need to be monitored for further development,
since the Madden-Julian Oscillation run indicates
a patch of moist air over
the area in which these waves are located. Shear
also seems to be lessening in these areas.

All four clusters are located between 25W and 60W.

A new wave emerging off of Africa has also developed some convection and will need to be monitored. Several scattered light clusters of convection persist near the Antilles.

Several clusters bear watch.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Any thoughts on my "prediction" ^^^^ Feel free to add any thoughts

[du1st]

what are you taking about tampa?