THE RIDGE needs to rebuild for any east coast threats

[mahicks]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

This should answer some of your quastions.

I'm waiting for the ridge to rebuild...

Interesting read on this FAQ...



Subject: G8) Does an active June and July mean the rest of the season will be busy too?


Yes and No. The vast majority of Atlantic activity takes place during August-September-October, the climatological peak months of the hurricane season. The overall number of named storms (hurricanes) occurring in June and July (JJ) correlates at an insignificant r = +0.13 (+0.02) versus the whole season activity. In fact, there is a slight negative relationship between early season storms (hurricanes) versus late season - August through November - r = -0.28 (-0.35). Thus, the overall early season activity, be it very active or quite calm, has little bearing on the season as a whole. These correlations are based on the years 1944-1994.

However, as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during JJ have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a JJ storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" (though not "necessary") condition for a year to produce at least average activity. (I.e., Not all years with average to above-average total overall activity have had a JJ storm in that region, but almost all years with that type of JJ storm produce average to above-average activity.) The formation of a storm in this region during June-July is taken into account when the August updates for the Bill Gray and NOAA seasonal forecasts are issued.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hey....Someone Help me out PLEASE!!

Can u please show me the ridge on that pic?????

I would like to say I know a good bit about hurricanes themselves but I'm a NEWBIE to understanding Ridges, Troughs, ULL's, AntiCyclones, etc..etc...

Does someone have a good FAQ link or anything??

Hi machicks. Looking at that picture provided on here shows a long range forecast outlook that suggest whatever activity occurs in the tropics won't likely affect the United States anytime soon. The only real big ridge of high pressure I see is situated where the red is on the map over the northeastern Atlantic closer to Europe indicating stronger surface high pressure. There is also a weaker high situated off the coast of Florida and Georgia as seen in the orange. The air flows clockwise around areas of high pressure and the air tends to sink. As a result, areas along the southeast United States coastline will likely see southerly winds blow in on the back side of that high pressure area you see offshore.

At the same time though, notice over southern Canada and also the northern Atlantic in the blue where areas of low pressure are situated. Winds flow toward low pressure in a counterclockwise manner, hence more unsettled weather from those mid latitude systems.

The following I got are basic definitions of what a trough, ridge, upper level low, and anticyclone mean courtesy of weather.com. From there I'll give you a link and see if that helps. If you want any questions, ask here or PM me and I'll help you further if you need it.

TROUGH
An elongated area of low atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of minimum cyclonic circulation. The opposite of a ridge.

RIDGE
An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of maximum anticyclonic circulation. The opposite of a trough.

ANTICYCLONE
A relative pressure maximum. An area of pressure that has diverging winds and a rotation opposite to the earth's rotation. This is clockwise the Northern Hemisphere and counter-clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. It is the opposite of an area of low pressure, or a cyclone.
Related term: high pressure

UPPER AIR/UPPER LEVEL
The portion of the atmosphere which is above the lower troposphere. It is generally applied to the levels above 850 millibars. Therefore, upper level lows and highs, troughs, winds, observations, and charts all apply to atmospheric phenomena above the surface.

http://www.weather.com/glossary/?from=footer has definitions of the terms above and more. I hope this helps you a bit machick and I'll help you more if you need it. Good to meet you here.

Jim

[mahicks]

Hey....Someone Help me out PLEASE!!

Can u please show me the ridge on that pic?????

I would like to say I know a good bit about hurricanes themselves but I'm a NEWBIE to understanding Ridges, Troughs, ULL's, AntiCyclones, etc..etc...

Does someone have a good FAQ link or anything??

Hi machicks. Looking at that picture provided on here shows a long range forecast outlook that suggest whatever activity occurs in the tropics won't likely affect the United States anytime soon. The only real big ridge of high pressure I see is situated where the red is on the map over the northeastern Atlantic closer to Europe indicating stronger surface high pressure. There is also a weaker high situated off the coast of Florida and Georgia as seen in the orange. The air flows clockwise around areas of high pressure and the air tends to sink. As a result, areas along the southeast United States coastline will likely see southerly winds blow in on the back side of that high pressure area you see offshore.

At the same time though, notice over southern Canada and also the northern Atlantic in the blue where areas of low pressure are situated. Winds flow toward low pressure in a counterclockwise manner, hence more unsettled weather from those mid latitude systems.

The following I got are basic definitions of what a trough, ridge, upper level low, and anticyclone mean courtesy of weather.com. From there I'll give you a link and see if that helps. If you want any questions, ask here or PM me and I'll help you further if you need it.

TROUGH
An elongated area of low atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of minimum cyclonic circulation. The opposite of a ridge.

RIDGE
An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of maximum anticyclonic circulation. The opposite of a trough.

ANTICYCLONE
A relative pressure maximum. An area of pressure that has diverging winds and a rotation opposite to the earth's rotation. This is clockwise the Northern Hemisphere and counter-clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. It is the opposite of an area of low pressure, or a cyclone.
Related term: high pressure

UPPER AIR/UPPER LEVEL
The portion of the atmosphere which is above the lower troposphere. It is generally applied to the levels above 850 millibars. Therefore, upper level lows and highs, troughs, winds, observations, and charts all apply to atmospheric phenomena above the surface.

http://www.weather.com/glossary/?from=footer has definitions of the terms above and more. I hope this helps you a bit machick and I'll help you more if you need it. Good to meet you here.

Jim

Thank You very much!....I'm LEARNING!!!!
LOOK 'MA.....NO HANDS!!

[rainstorm]

looks weak for the heart of the cane season

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

Can I ask how you equate a 144 hr forecast to the heart of the season? The last time I looked the heart of the seaon is a lot longer than 144 hours away.

6 days from now is aug 13 and the heart of the cane season is mid aug to mid sept, and i will think you will further find the highest frequency of east coast cane hits occurs in aug. also, i think cal bill will back me in saying a convoluted pattern like we have now will take awhile to re-orient itself

[Wthrman13]

Sorry rainstorm, the ridge is not correlated perfectly to the Sea Level Pressure map. That shows area of higher (red) and lower (blue). The ridge is best seen at 500 mb and with the layer averaged steering flow. There are two large ridges per the GFS at 18Z out to 144 hours. They are surrounded by the 588 height line. One over the southeast US, Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic off the southeast coast. The other ridge extents from 30W east off the picture. There is an upper level low centered at 39W 35N.

A very good point, and one that cannot be overemphasized. When looking at the steering flow for a tropical cyclone, you cannot simply look at the surface features. The steering level for strong tropical cyclones is in the mid-to-upper levels (i.e. 700 mb and above), and the flow features at that level are not necessarily in phase (that is, in the same location) with the surface flow features. In fact, they usually are not, because atmospheric motions are often highly baroclinic, especially in midlatitudes. For developing surface lows in midlatitudes, for example, the upper-level low/trough will be found upstream, or to the west, of the surface low, or to put it another way, the low-pressure system tilts westward with height. The same thing is true for developing highs (the upper-level ridge/high will be found upstream, or to the west of, the surface high).

Also, as people have already stated, there is considerable day-to-day variability in the strength of the subtropical high pressure belts, and you have to look at a long-term average to get a sense for whether the Bermuda high, say, is weaker or stronger than average. You can't take a snapshot, especially one from a model prediction, and from that extrapolate into the rest of the season.

[EDR1222]

looks weak for the heart of the cane season

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

Yes it does look kind of weak for this time of year. It will be interesting to see if it stays this way or if the pattern does a flip flop toward the end of August. If the North Atlantic Oscilation goes more postive, then we could see stronger ridging taking place.

[Patrick99]

If there's no strong ridge, it will be tough to get any Florida peninsula hit......until perhaps October/November, when we look to the south.

[Scorpion]

Wrong, if theres weak ridging it would allow low latitude waves in the Carib to move more northerly, develop, and impact Florida.