E-PAC poised for a rally?

[clfenwi]

GFS and UKMET seem to think so, both are spinning up a storm or two over the next few days.

UKMET is probably jumping the gun a bit in analyzing one right now:



TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.7N 107.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2005 11.7N 107.9W WEAK
00UTC 08.08.2005 11.7N 108.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2005 12.5N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2005 13.5N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2005 14.3N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2005 15.3N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2005 15.9N 117.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2005 16.3N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2005 16.6N 121.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2005 16.9N 123.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2005 17.2N 126.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2005 17.5N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2005 18.0N 130.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

Last night's guidance was forecasting formation at 00Z tonight.

And slightly later:



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.6N 104.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.08.2005 10.6N 104.0W WEAK
00UTC 10.08.2005 11.0N 104.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2005 11.7N 105.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2005 13.3N 107.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2005 14.3N 108.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2005 15.3N 108.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

GFS is also suggesting formation of one or two storms in the near-mid term:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Its 144 h forecast from 18Z last night drew a pretty picture in the eastern Pacific:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr


Canadian is also forecasting formation of one in the next 72 hours (and perhaps hinting at a second after that):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[WeatherEmperor]

interesting. they are behind schedule come to think of it.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

interesting. they are behind schedule come to think of it.

<RICKY>

Way behind I say only 5 named systems when the average of named systems in that basin is 16.So it is very probable that the EPAC will end below normal.

[WindRunner]

Isn't there some correlation between low EPAC and high ATL seasons? Or is my memory faltering?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes WindRunner I think I read something like that somewhere...and that correlation so far has thrown my hydrocarbonic theory out the window

[WindRunner]

I think I missed that one. Do you have a link for it?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

No sorry don't have link but I think it was on TWC Forums which got closed down a couple weeks back.

[Scorpion]

One storm is hardly a rally. Also most of the EPAC storms have been worthless 40-50 kt TS's. But at least it will be something else to track.

[Aslkahuna]

In general, yes an active ATL season means less EPAC activity because the disturbances that come over from the ATL side are fewer in number of even non existent because they develop in the ATL. Also upper air patterns that foster high levels of ATL activity are of the reverse effect in EPAC.

Steve

[WeatherEmperor]

so how many named storms do you think the EPAC will end up at the end of the season?

<RICKY>

[Hurricanehink]

so how many named storms do you think the EPAC will end up at the end of the season?

<RICKY>

I would guess 9, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, but that is just (shh!) -removed-.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072224
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM PDT SUN AUG 7 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A WESTWARD-MOVING AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 750
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


clfenwi here comes the rally.

[HurricaneBill]

Actually, August and September are usually the time to watch for majors developing in the EPAC.

Also, remember 2003. While a lackluster season overall with no majors, the first 8 storms all failed to reach hurricane status (although some suspect Carlos was close to it). Then around late August, Hurricane Ignacio finally ended the streak.

None of the first 8 storms became hurricanes. But of the next 8 storms, 7 became hurricanes.

So the EPAC season went from 8/0/0 to finish the season at 16/7/0. In terms of named storms, 2003 was the most active season for the EPAC since 2000.

Currently the EPAC is at 5/1/0.