TD 10 in GOM?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would likely be a weak system anyway if it developed. So maybe another name on the list.

[jasons2k]

well i think the big question is IF. And IF it can and drift away from land it has the potential to dev. quickly IMO. but step 1 may take 3 more days

[jasons2k]

been away most of the day, but click glance indicates this system needs to be watched. it's getting sheared on the N side real bad but as it moves out into the GOM it does have a chance. I will try to get some time this evening to do another update in my outlook thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69836

Hey Steve: Are you out there? I'm wondering what your take is. We've been having a steady NE breeze here in Houston today, it's unusual for August unless we have a system in the GOM. Just seems eerie to me.

[Stormcenter]

This thing might still have a chance if the shear lets up. Is has a very good circulation.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[Sanibel]

The surface clouds make this look like it is trying to form but it's too weak...

[Steve]

>>Hey Steve: Are you out there? I'm wondering what your take is. We've been having a steady NE breeze here in Houston today, it's unusual for August unless we have a system in the GOM. Just seems eerie to me.

I don't really have a take on it other than it being something to watch as it has been for about 7 days. I've been waiting for a low to form and move off NE or something, but there's just been several weaker votexes spinning up and down. Should the SW Atlantic High build in as progged earlier by the Tallahassee or NWFL NWS someone posted in another thread, and clear them out, I guess we'd have to see if the anything could develop. The ingredients are there but so is a lot of confusion. And things won't ordinarily form in the Gulf until confusion is resolved. Bear watch only at this time

Steve

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...LOCATED ABOUT 1305
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A NON-TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Sanibel]

Lots of clouds to the west out over the Gulf here...

[Sanibel]

Torrential rain from the west here (wrong way). Low probably developing...

[Dean4Storms]

Don't see it developing, it should drift northward into south Alabama by Monday. If it had been a hundred miles or so further south we would have had a player. But as it is, it is too close to land and UL winds are also inhibiting it.

[Stormcenter]

Don't see it developing, it should drift northward into south Alabama by Monday. If it had been a hundred miles or so further south we would have had a player. But as it is, it is too close to land and UL winds are also inhibiting it.

Actually it has drifted south tonight and the further it moves away from the coast the better the chances it has to develop even though they are slim at the moment. I look for a blow up of convection later tonight or early tomorrow morning. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[wxman57]

Looks like it dissipated, to me. Not much chance of it doing anything. Storms are dying off. Nothing really there now. Chance of any develoment probably about 1-2%.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like it dissipated, to me. Not much chance of it doing anything. Storms are dying off. Nothing really there now. Chance of any develoment probably about 1-2%.

They way I look at it if the NHC is still mentioning it even though they say it won't develop than the "slim" chance is still there.
Hey it's the only game close to town right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[vbhoutex]

When I looked at the vis loops earlier this afternoon it looked to me like it had become an elongated SW-NE low and was losing its' identity pretty much. 12 hours earlier I would have said it had a chance if it had moved about 50-100 miles further S, which it didn't.

[Frank P]

When I looked at the vis loops earlier this afternoon it looked to me like it had become an elongated SW-NE low and was losing its' identity pretty much. 12 hours earlier I would have said it had a chance if it had moved about 50-100 miles further S, which it didn't.

I agree, all the convection sped off to the SE GOM this evening... per the IR loop there is a very weak circulation just off shore near the pensacola area and a 1012 mb L noted per the NWS... then again tomorrow is another day....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Astro_man92]

I don't see any circulation but it almost lookes as if it is folding over itself

[Stormcenter]

I don't see any circulation but it almost lookes as if it is folding over itself

Oh it's "still" there (weak circulation) and drifting southward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Astro_man92]

I think I can see it a little better in that loop

[hicksta]

I don't see any circulation but it almost lookes as if it is folding over itself

Oh it's "still" there (weak circulation) and drifting southward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I cant see these loops. But if it is drifting southward and continued that way. It would have a chance to devolp even if it is a weak circulation. Please correct me if im wrong.

[wxmann_91]

Too much shear.