Amateur Forecast for TD 9 - 11:00 AM EDT Aug 6

[wxmann_91]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 ADVISORY 8
8:00 AM PDT AUG 6 2005 (11:00 AM EDT OR 15 Z AUG 6 2005)

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FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC. THIS IS AN INDEPENDENT PRODUCT.

PLEASE REMEMBER...HURRICANES CAN BE VERY UNPREDICTABLE AND CAN MAKE SUDDEN CHANGES AND/OR SHIFTS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.
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CORRECTED FOR DATE

TD 9 HAS HAD A BURST OF CONVECTION ON ITS SOUTHEASTERN SIDE...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS A BIT BETTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 30 KT. THE INTENSITY OF TD 9 OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK...AND THE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY. YEP IT IS CONFUSING. THE WEAKER IT STAYS...THE MORE TO THE SOUTH TD 9 WILL REMAIN AND MORE LIKELY IT WILL NOT GO INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND THE MORE TO THE SOUTH TD 9 REMAINS...THE STRONGER IT SHOULD LIKELY BECOME...AND I HAVE TD 9 AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TD 9 MIGHT STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TODAY SHOULD ITS ORGANIZATION CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...EVEN THOUGH ITS LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE...WITH LOW SST'S...STRONG SAHARAN AIR...AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS PAST 24 HR...AND THE NHC'S OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR THE THE BAMM AND BAMD MODELS.

FORECASTER TANG


HOUR POSITION INTENSITY
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INITIAL 17.9N 42.3W 30 KT
12 HR 18.5N 43.7W 30 KT
24 HR 19.0N 45.1W 35 KT
36 HR 19.5N 46.9W 40 KT
48 HR 20.0N 48.8W 45 KT
72 HR 20.8N 52.1W 50 KT
96 HR 22.0N 56.2W 60 KT
120 HR 22.9N 60.7W 65 KT

Sorry, but no track for this package, and I won't be able to issue one at 5:00 PM.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, I'm liking BAMM too, at least through 120hrs.

[EDR1222]

Good forecast. Thanks for posting!

[thefixed]

Nicely done forecast, I enjoy reading them.

[wxmann_91]

Unfortunately, due to computer problems, I won't be able to post my 11:00 PM EDT advisory. JFYI

[Swimdude]

Good forecast, but does it REALLY have to be in all CAPS like the NHC does? It's easier on the eyes if we're just reading simple typing. A forecast is a forecast without all caps. Nice job though!

[wxmann_91]

YES IT DOES!!! J/K

No it doesn't have to be in all caps, but I find caps more professional and cool-looking. Whatever, it doesn't really matter, I'll change the format tomorrow.