5 PM TWO: Low Pressure has formed of SC coast (Recon Sunday)

#21 Postby **drezee** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 11:27 am

403
NOUS42 KNHC 061600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 06 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE
A. 07/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 07/1230Z
D. 32.0N 80.0W
E. 07/1400Z TO 07/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
BK

#22 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 11:27 am

It just better go south I going fishing Sunday

Sanibel · #23 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 11:32 am

Last year after Alex formed in this area the season got busy soon after...

#24 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 11:36 am

Sanibel wrote:Last year after Alex formed in this area the season got busy soon after...

yeah thats true. if it just sits and spins there we could see it form.

<RICKY>

Homey · #25 Postby **Homey** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 12:05 pm

Anyone know what direction this disturbance is moving? I am in Murrells Inlet, SC and SURE DO NEED SOME RAIN!!!

Thanks,

Homey

gkrangers · #26 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 12:09 pm

Steve wrote:It's a 1016mb low. Then there's the 1014 in the Gulf where the surface low is interacting with an Upper Low nosing in creating probably the best banding we've seen there in a week.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... region=GOM

Oh yeah, and TD #9 is now going by NONAME at the NRL...

Steve

NRL always calls the depressions NONAME..because...they have no name.

#27 Postby **Steve** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 12:20 pm

>>NRL always calls the depressions NONAME..because...they have no name.

Yeah, I'd been only able to get the alt site the last couple of days via FNMOC which has it as 09l.nine. I guess I never realized it was carried differently sometimes. I fixed it in the other thread.

Steve

#28 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 12:23 pm

QUCKSCAT OF AREA IN MENTION

gkrangers · #29 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 12:28 pm

Doesn't appear to me much doing on the QS.

#30 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 12:35 pm

Looks like nothing to me - a 1017mb "low" with a broad weak circulation. I give it maybe a 5% shot at developing into a TD.

shaggy · #31 Postby **shaggy** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 12:54 pm

if this system was the same distance off The florida panhandle this would be a big thing for most everyone

#32 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 1:07 pm

ncdowneast wrote:if this system was the same distance off The florida panhandle this would be a big thing for most everyone

take a look at this winds are 25k

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1

WindRunner · #33 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 1:09 pm

considering that it was 8kts at 9:30, it could just be a little t-storm stalled over the area; I would want another couple of reports before making any assumptions.

kevin · #34 Postby **kevin** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 1:10 pm

Pressure is way too high.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #35 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 1:18 pm

jimvb wrote:Is this to be another Gaston?

Don't be ready to call TD #9 Irene yet. This LLC could be Irene. A post said that 9 will get her name. It could be his name.

This is a classic example on why we shouldn't hand out the next available name to every depression and/or wave that pops up. A lot of people thought 09L would become Irene and therefore started doing so... now 09L may have to settle for Katrina or Lee... if it even gets a name.

gkrangers · #36 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 1:20 pm

Yep...tho, we may see TS Irene at 5 given the better satellite presentation today...convection is sheared from the west, but its there and wrapped into the center a bit.

BensonTCwatcher · #37 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 2:00 pm

yesterday I posted in another that a local model at WRAL develped at tropical system on yesterday mornings news. The on air person did not say a word about it. This must be what that model picked up. I noticed lots of convection with outflow but I realize what I/we were watching was a convergence zone from the ULL to the SW and the backside of Harvey.

It's great that you can learn a lot here. I had no idea a system could form like that :wink:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #38 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 2:13 pm

Theres a turning near the northeast side of the convection. The quickscats show a half closed off low. 25 knots. Buoys support that theres a sharp wave at least. I don't know would like to see convection keep poping over it.

Hurricaneman · #39 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 2:50 pm

Looks like the low is 225 miles south of wilmington NC, do you think this will become a depression tonight

shaggy · #40 Postby **shaggy** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 3:57 pm

Here is what Alex did last year about the same time of year and similar location of low off east coast by posting this I am not saying this is going to be a hurricane however Alex shows just how strong something this close in can get in a short amount of time
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200401.asp

5 PM TWO: Low Pressure has formed of SC coast (Recon Sunday)

ok

Re: Gaston?

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