Why no tropical waves in Florida so far

[boca]

We haven't had one tropical wave yet this season in Florida and my guess is because were in a negative NAO which is supressing the Bermuda high and I'm wondering when the NAO will go positive.

[Josephine96]

Boca wants a storm lol

[boca]

Boca wants a tropical storm not a hurricane.

[boca]

At least I'm openly -removed- for a tropical storm and not hiding it.

[Scorpion]

Same here . Maybe TD 9 will fulfill our wishes .

[Jim Cantore]

I'm be in Florida from the 9th to the 19th and one storm will flood where I am so quit wishin it

[EDR1222]

We haven't had one tropical wave yet this season in Florida and my guess is because were in a negative NAO which is supressing the Bermuda high and I'm wondering when the NAO will go positive.

Remember Boca, it is only August 6th.

[boca]

true EDR1222

[WeatherEmperor]

Boca wants a storm lol

you want them too so hush. lol

<RICKY>

[Steve]

>>We haven't had one tropical wave yet this season in Florida and my guess is because were in a negative NAO which is supressing the Bermuda high and I'm wondering when the NAO will go positive.

Here are the 4 month running NAO charts:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x_mrf.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

FWIW, the NAO was positive from mid-June thru mid-July and again at the end of July. The values weren't super high, but are progged to return back to positive to neutral.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

Steve

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Any dates when the NAO might go positive favorable for tropical development?

[Patrick99]

I want storms as much as anyone, but I am of the feeling that we will have an extremely quiet season over here on the east coast of Florida....perhaps even the entire east coast of the US.

October/November...who knows....that's a completely different season when we look to the south instead of the east.

It seems to me that we might get one or two more storms cruising the Caribbean into the Gulf, but I think the other "lane" has already been established....early recurve in the vicinity of Bermuda or even east of Bermuda.

I am really surprised that that mid ocean low is sucking up a weak TD the way it is with TD 9.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have a strange feeling in my silly intestines that things are gonna rev up with GOM storms this September and brush FL west coast (like Gabrielle in 2001).
crazy ssts

[storms in NC]

Don't you think Fla has had enough. There is still people that haven't got back into their homes from last year. I hope the storms stay away from there for a while.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think FL has had enough, but climatology clearly does not agree with me.


Of course florida has had more than enough. I'm not -removed-.
It happens almost every year that a system develops in the SE GOM to impact florida:
All gusts were taken on Tampa bay near my location

1999- Harvey, irene
Sept 2000- Gordon
Sept 2001- Gabrielle; Gust to 80 over bay based on a local unofficial observer's anemometer
2002- A rainband from Edouard as it crossed produced tropical storm force gusts as the band hit from the bay from the north

Sept 2003- Henri (Eyewall passes right over my house, but as a TD)
Sustained wind at my home max of 34 with a gust to 57.

2004- Charley hits SW coast; previous night rainband creates gust to 58 mph
jeanne and frances created gusts to 80+ and 73 respectively

[storm4u]

i dont know i really dont think it is a florida year this year!! south carolina and north carolina will be the targets this year i think and Bermuda also looks like a target spot!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


While I don't think florida will see 4 storms, we may still get 1 TS or weak cat 1 based on climatology.

[storm4u]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


While I don't think florida will see 4 storms, we may still get 1 TS or weak cat 1 based on climatology.

I dont know i just dont it happening for you guys this year!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Maybe maybe not...not wishing anything, but climo tells me to keep my guard up.

[CharleySurvivor]

Always on guard here also!