MJO/Activity Boom: Will it happen soon....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The MJO if favorable by Aug. 15
may facilitate development of some of these unlike with previous waves
that struggled due to dry MJO ...---

Only time will tell....

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think anything will really get going until late August/early September, considering that's not very far away. I think early September for sure.

[wxmann_91]

The rest of the year will be a bust.

Come on 2006, we're waiting for you to come!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cycloneye posted an earlier thread about how the MJO should get more favorable by mid to late August. So late August through September looks like the best time for action.

[ConvergenceZone]

that's true, however there have to be alot of other favorable factors/conditions in place besides the MJO. That's just one factor that needs to be in favor.

[Sanibel]

The SST's are triggering the storms, but the joke is they're not taking off. The June/July theory is sort of playing out, but it is too early to tell...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It seems like I can't figure out what exactly has lulled the activity because there are TOO many possible factors. I am confused,
and will proceed to subjugate myself to the analytical processes of my intellect. Please enlighten me anyone....
so that my tropical speculation may be profoundly enhanced

[Jim Hughes]

It seems like I can't figure out what exactly has lulled the activity because there are TOO many possible factors. I am confused,
and will proceed to subjugate myself to the analytical processes of my intellect. Please enlighten me anyone....
so that my tropical speculation may be profoundly enhanced

Well maybe you are looking at it backward. Instead of saying what has caused the lull you need to think about what caused the extreme increase. You are now calling normal activity a lull . Just a thought. The previous 24 hour mishap with Harvey and TD 9 can be explained. Lets just say they do did not like the increased winds. See Global forum.

[WindRunner]

The MJO is the only thing we're waiting on, and I noticed that the MJO graphic showed a favorable pahse right over TD9 when the NHC upgraded. Just a thought.

[Jim Hughes]

The MJO is the only thing we're waiting on, and I noticed that the MJO graphic showed a favorable phase right over TD9 when the NHC upgraded. Just a thought.

The MJO was not in a suppressing state around TD 9 the last couple of days. It was basically neutral. Harvey was in a much less favorable area...MJO wise. But I guess it depends upon where you get your information from.

[EDR1222]

Cycloneye posted an earlier thread about how the MJO should get more favorable by mid to late August. So late August through September looks like the best time for action.

I remember reading that. Some of the other mets on here have also been saying that by the end of August things should become more favorable.

[wxwatcher91]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks for the responses everyone
If anyone has new or updated ideas feel free to add

[Jim Hughes]

thanks for the responses everyone
If anyone has new or updated ideas feel free to add

I just wanted to clarify something. When anyone hears me mention anything about the MJO I am referring to the Multivariate MJO Index
It is somewhat experimental just like the MEI (Multivariate El Nino Index)

It is based on the equatorial averages of the 850 hPa & 200 hPa zonal wind and the satellite observed outgoing long wave radiation.

I find it very useful and an accurate representation of how the atmosphere is behaving.

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/


Jim