TD 10 in GOM?

[jasons2k]

mobile radar loop shows conv. increasing offshore

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A few years ago I think 2003 there was a depression that formed off the coast of Florida named 7. In which formed almost the same way.

[Stormcenter]

Definitely "looks" like something is organizing off the AL/FL coastline.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmob.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmob.shtml

[jasons2k]

2 hours

[hicksta]

hmmm

[Frank P]

definitely another rotation in the northern GOM per the radar loops, and lastest round of bouy data also indicates it at the surface with winds reported out of the east wnw and south at key bouys, however, pressures remain high, overall slowing rising, and max winds in the vicinity are only ~13.6 k gusts.... so the tease continues...

[Astro_man92]

2 hours

Cool radar

[Steve]

There's still turning wtih the surface trof,
and NWS has a 1015mb surface low plotted
due south of the MS/AL border @ 10CDT last
night. The whole GOM is disturbed and
confused.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The offshore convection tonight
looks like it's firing where the surface trof is
intersecting with an upper trof diving SSEward
off the LA & MS coasts and where the surge from
ex-93l is pushing in from the SE. Look for
convection to fire east and south of there. The
upper trof could split and leave behind a piece of
energy for down the road, but it's not good for
development of a tropical surface feature in the
near term. We'll see.

Steve

[tailgater]

Well for the first time in 2 or 3 days the pressures aren't rising, there still high but we do have some drops in the area near the La/Miss. coast. Better curvature in the cloud pattern and the surface rotations seem ATT to have congealed into one area near the biggest drop in pressure. Upper levels are pretty hostile as stated before.
Any development should be slow but for one I won't write this off till it's outta here.
SE La. do remember Juan, a weak cane that just sat off our coast and tried to sink us. I'm in NO way saying this will be like him but a SE wind in these parts and we don't drain.

[rockyman]

OK, even though this system is extremely weak, there is nothing else out there much to get excited about and the system is right on my doorstep, so I pulled out my good ole' Paint program...The Red circle (actually should be more elongated to the NE) is my idea of the center of any circulation...this is the same "center" that moved across Mobile County SW-ward then came offshore near P'goula. The arrows are current wind observations and the red lines are "banding" features and possible inflow:

[Galvestongirl]

o.k....which way is this little jewel headed??? I can sure use the rain right about now, I have a feeling august is going to be another month of little to no rain fall for us.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

They just mentioned these both on the Weather Channel and they are watching them closely.

[SouthFloridawx]

here is the quickscat.

[Brent]

o.k....which way is this little jewel headed??? I can sure use the rain right about now, I have a feeling august is going to be another month of little to no rain fall for us.

Eastward... then NE over AL/GA/North FL.

More rain... YAY.

[HurricaneGirl]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/radloop.master.pl?Florida
The leading edge of the low pressure system is creating an impressive line of thundersorms.

[Buck]

If this had more time, I think it would probably develope, but I don't think it has the time.

[jasons2k]

Quickscat looked better yesterday actually

[HouTXmetro]

If this had more time, I think it would probably develope, but I don't think it has the time.

I disagree, the problem here is that it is too close to land and not time. It has had PLENTY of time to develop. This system has been sitting there for over a week. If it is able to move more than a 100+ miles offshore then it may have a chance.

[baygirl_1]

Based on this:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE PAST WEEK...A STACKED SFC AND UPPER LOW LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE GULF COAST. THE FEATURE ALSO SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...THUS NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE TO KICK THE FEATURE OUT OF THE WAY. AT THE MOMENT THE ONLY HOPE LOOKS TO BE THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WHICH MAY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND HELP NUDGE THE FEATURE OUT OF OUR AREA...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WX RATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. NOTICING DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS HAS THUS FAR HELPED KEEP DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST HOUR RADAR
RETURN HAVE INCREASED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

it looks like it might get kicked further west and south by the ridge buidling from the east (if it builds this far west). Then, the low might have a chance to develop into something else. Not that I want anything to develop here in our backyard, but I sure want this thing to move out of here. I am sick and tired of the rain ruining outdoor plans around here.
I want

[jasons2k]

yes, been looking at vis and the llc looks like it's getting left behind and drifting SW, not good news