TD 10 in GOM?

[Stormcenter]

This has no chance in hell.

[Stormcenter]

Its not gonna do jack because itll never make it off the coast.

It's off the coast already based on the NHC's 4:30pm outlook.

[Steve]

But it needs some juice. Remains of the wave fka 93L are not too very far south of it and seem to be moving again. I've been tracking that all along, so let's see if it can impart a shot of oomph

I still doubt it though

Steve

[tw861]

The actual center is in southeast Mississippi just west of the Alabama state line. Also about 40 miles north of Pascagoula.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES2 ... 1qeKof.jpg

If you go to the nasa site and do the loop zoomed in you can clearly see it, looks to be moving WSW. Better hurry though, the suns setting.

[Dean4Storms]

You guys crack me up, every little swirl is the broad low level low that is actually like the NHC said sitting just OFF the coast of AL/FL line. The trough is causing little swirls to form in convective clusters but that is not the overall broad low they refer to. Being someone who has lived along the coast here in the Panahandle for many a year and seen many a tropical system either form right offshore or come barreling in, this DOES bear some watchnig. Today it did take on some low level tropical characteristics with bands of heavy rain moving through our area dumping 3 inches and gusty winds out of the East, not from the south which was the direction the convection was moving in from. Also, have noted fast moving low stratus that began late yesterday that has continued and is moving fairly rapidly toward the west. All this to say that if this broad low moves offshore only slightly more it would be in a favorable enviro. to develop and this is the reason why the NHC mentions it in the TWO.

[hurricanedude]

with all do respect..THE NHC mentions a lot in there TWO.....dont mean they think its going to develop...IE....tropical wave west of the CV islands remains poorly organized, conditions are UNFAVORABLE for development....this is just a snippet from a previous advisory just to prove just because its mentioned dont mean squat

[cycloneye]

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER INLAND
FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-25N
BETWEEN 85W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N95W. ANOTHER
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N90W.
A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO S
GEORGIA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The above from 8:05 PM Discussion from TPC.As I read there is nothing to open eyebrows in that area.

[Normandy]

There it goes.

[WeatherEmperor]

it seems we jump the gun everytime something shows a sign of developing.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 060229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...LOCATED ABOUT 1090 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE
COASTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[jasons2k]

Interesting, they have gone back to the first outlook's language

[jasons2k]

convection incr. off coasts of la/ms/al/fl...

[Stormcenter]

it seems we jump the gun everytime something shows a sign of developing.

<RICKY>

Why not? That's what this forum is for isn't it? To discuss "any" areas that "may" have a potential for development. In this case the NHC mentions it (GOM low) so it must have some potential for development. What about the people who constantly post about every wave that comes off the African coast even though it's days from even effecting any land mass? Oh well I'm finished ranting.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting, they have gone back to the first outlook's language

What do you mean?

[Normandy]

Forget the "TD" in the gulf....that blow up east of FL is interesting....it formed from the eddy that left FL coast this morning.

[Stormcenter]

Forget the "TD" in the gulf....that blow up east of FL is interesting....it formed from the eddy that left FL coast this morning.

The GOM (IMO) low has the better chance of development but you correct the eddy of the FL coast is interesting too.

[Normandy]

Well the eddy is over water and not land, ive never thought this GOM mess would amount to much since last week.

[Frank P]

geesh, its been doing this convection thing off and on for a week... seems like the entire area on the n GOM has had some type of rotation as well, with half over land and the other half over water... some days its more pronounced than others.. I don't know how many little vortices I've seen during this time... today there were at least three discernable centers , two on land and one in the GOM... the weak center that was about 30 or so miles north of Pascagoula late this afternoon looks like its still moving to the SW... it may not even survive, but probably another weak one will reform tomorrow somewhere else.....

its like trying to tease us to death.... like its saying "hey you guys are just so desperate to track something well watch me, and I just enjoy torturing the stew out of ya"... sometimes I don't know whats worse, waiting for a storm to hit or just waiting for a storm to develop...

as soon as I say this area will never develop .... boom, we'll have a Cat 2 on our hands... so I'm gonna just keep my mouth shut and let it continue to torture me....

[GalvestonDuck]

it seems we jump the gun everytime something shows a sign of developing.

<RICKY>

Why not? That's what this forum is for isn't it? To discuss "any" areas that "may" have a potential for development. In this case the NHC mentions it (GOM low) so it must have some potential for development. What about the people who constantly post about every wave that comes off the African coast even though it's days from even effecting any land mass? Oh well I'm finished ranting.

Ditto.

I like when people post about the ones that won't develop as well as the ones that will (or might) and I like when they post links and/or graphics to illustrate what they are seeing. I mean, how the heck else are the rest of us going to learn what to look for, where to see it, and what to watch for if those of you with a bit more knowledge about this stuff don't talk about it?

[Brent]

There's no convection there now...

Next.