Extended Forecast Discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

237
FXUS02 KWBC 051812
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
212 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

VALID 12Z MON AUG 08 2005 - 12Z FRI AUG 12 2005



D+8 TO 11 MEANS OF GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE OF A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER AK TOWARD THE ARCTIC CIRCLE WITH A SUBPOLAR VORTEX
SETTING UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA. SECONDARY FLOW PATTERN OF A MORE
SRN STREAM COMES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PAC WITH SRN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL REX BLOCK PATTERN
SETS IN THE MEANS OVER THE NERN PAC WHILE ELSW SUB TROPICAL AND
TROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM WRN AFRICA EWD ACROSS THE ATLC INTO
SWRN CONUS CONTG TO PROVIDE A MEAN WESTERLY TRACK PATTERN FOR ANY
TROPICAL IMPULSES FROM THE ERN ATLC.

GOOD PATTERN AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF CONTS THUR PERIOD
KEEPING WESTERLIES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONT TO ENHANCE THE MONSOON WHILE
EWD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST A WARM MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST WITH A CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION.
TEMPS NATIONWIDE AOA AVG.

STRONG AK RIDGING THIS PERIOD WILL PROVIDE A DRY WARM SPELL WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVG. HIGH CONFIDENCE PATTERN.
ROSENSTEIN
$$

[Ivanhater]

no mention of a weakness, interesting

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I noticed that too. We shall see though.


The bigger picture is of course the westward track comment for any new systems, scary


Hybridstorm_November2001

[shaggy]

for such a strong ridge 9 sure is busting thru it so we will have to see what happens

[Ivanhater]

for such a strong ridge 9 sure is busting thru it so we will have to see what happens

td9 is moving more toward the w or a little north of west, what do you mean busting through the ridge?

[deltadog03]

yeah, the ridge is too the north...its moving like 280 or so...

[dwg71]

yeah, the ridge is too the north...its moving like 280 or so...

11Am to 4Pm Update .4N to .6W, thats more like 305..