extremely newbie forecasted path-UPDATED

[Scorpion]

I give it a .06 % chance of verifying . Good first forecast though.

[WeatherEmperor]

I give it a .06 % chance of verifying . Good first forecast though.

so what you are saying is that it is possible but not probable right?

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

I think its still possible since it is weak and the ridge is building in. But it might not even develop.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I give it a .06 % chance of verifying . Good first forecast though.

Totally agree with you FYI. I am updating my new thoughts now. How its looking today I just dont see it even making it far and I now dont expect it to follow that path. Yesterday I thought differently.

Matt

[floridahurricaneguy]

Updated Forecasted Path as of 2:00 PM CDT on August 5th, 2005.

FYI: I have the path eventually just ending but after that point I uncertain on if it will still be a depression or where exactly it will go. The green means:TD and yellow:TS and red:H




The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Petmom]

I like that idea much better. I think you have done well. I would like to try this one day, but how do you do it with the maps and all?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I bet this thing does "stay alive", albeit in a very weakened state for a while. But it will be reborn again and I think your path will prove pretty accurate, though I personally think it will pass through the state at a more southerly point and curve into the big bend area. -Tampa will miss a direct hit again as the storm does a wide loop around us.

Just my opinion.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I like that idea much better. I think you have done well. I would like to try this one day, but how do you do it with the maps and all?

I use my hurricane tracking software "tracking the eye" and pretend I am manually entering a new storm and enter in the longitude and latitude points with wind speed for each point. Then its plots it out. I basically just looked at different models and NHC's forecast and came up with my own forecast.

I think florida is still possibly but not going with that right now. Even if a southern florida hit happens we possibly would still feel affects depending on the size. Who knows now though. Stay tuned for update tonight.

Matt

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Although southern Florida hit seems more unlikely right now, I think we will be suprised at how strongly that ridge does build in, forcing not only a western component to the future storm's direction, but also a temporary WSW path as it rounds the southern "bubble" that I feel will occur in the high. I think the Turks and Caicos may get a little scare when they think that thsi storm is passing to their north, until the "jog" to the WSW for a little while corrects back to a westerly and then slightly north of westerly direction again.

[Petmom]

I like that idea much better. I think you have done well. I would like to try this one day, but how do you do it with the maps and all?

I use my hurricane tracking software "tracking the eye" and pretend I am manually entering a new storm and enter in the longitude and latitude points with wind speed for each point. Then its plots it out. I basically just looked at different models and NHC's forecast and came up with my own forecast.

I think florida is still possibly but not going with that right now. Even if a southern florida hit happens we possibly would still feel affects depending on the size. Who knows now though. Stay tuned for update tonight.

Matt

Thanks a lot. Perhaps I will try this one day. LOL................

See you all later.

[feederband]

Maybe thats one thing S2K can add to the site .... A place where we can put a 5 day model plot on and then they can transfer it to a S2K spaghetti model map ...