TD 9 Split

[ThunderMate]

Well if it won't reach the US then why are all the modles shifting west and now look at the NHC track forcast. What now Mr. Pro met.? Is climo going to save us again???

[Derecho]

Well if it won't reach the US then why are all the modles shifting west

They didn't shift West at 06Z, they shifted north...drastically.

[dwg71]

Im not seeing any shift west. Also, TD9 still has to survive, it looks like crap right now..

[cinlfla]

Well if it won't reach the US then why are all the modles shifting west and now look at the NHC track forcast. What now Mr. Pro met.? Is climo going to save us again???

I think these guys deserve some credit that have been doing this a long time, as for the models and the path that will change I am sure of, you can't argue with the satellite.... What you see is what you get.

[vbhoutex]

Well if it won't reach the US then why are all the modles shifting west and now look at the NHC track forcast. What now Mr. Pro met.? Is climo going to save us again???

This is not what is considered a respectful response. If you disagree with someones opinion say so respectfully, or just post your facts. There is no need for this type of rudeness.

[Air Force Met]

climo also says we won't have 3 named storms by this point in the season... Climo isn't very reliable this year...

There is climo (like three storms) and then there is record climo. There have been plenty of seasons where we have had three storms by now. This is track climo.

Think about it for a second. There is a reason why it's only happened once. Climo doesn't make storms form or move...but it does show something: It shows that if things don't ever happen...there is probably a reason for it. Just because one aspect of tropical activity is setting records and avoiding climo doesn't mean it all is. Climo is averages....and we are not even talking about "average" tracks here...we are talking about 1 storm in 150 years. Just because one little aspect of climo isn't being "normal" doesn't mean you throw it all out.

...So...given it's never fallen below 0 in Houston...should I forecast it to go below 0 because there are more storms than ever (this early)? Yes...it's apples and oranges...so is storm totals and track. Climo is just showing you what things do...not the why's. The why's are 1) a long journey over the atlantic above 15N is almost impossible because you get more influenced by troughs...and 2) Coriolis, Coriolis, Coriolis.

A instructor of mine taught me "be VERY carefaul forecasting record events. Make sure you have ALL the proof that makes the conclusion impossible to avoid." Right now...at 16N and naked...I don't have all the proof...so I'll stick to the climo that says no way. As I said...it would take an extra-ordinary set of meteorological events to drive it west for 3000 miles. not saying it CAN'T happen...but right now the data says it won't.

[deltadog03]

yeah, not very cool...i think TD9 could go nighty nighty if it gets much further...dryer air will say goodnight to the LLC...i still have to think a new one will get going in that complex of storms

[wxcrazytwo]

Yeah, that was kinda harsh, dude. Trust me, I have learned my lesson with harsh responses..

[Air Force Met]

Well if it won't reach the US then why are all the modles shifting west and now look at the NHC track forcast. What now Mr. Pro met.? Is climo going to save us again???

I am posting this response so that in 2 days I can make another reply.

Also...take a look at the data. The vis loop. Which way is it moving to you? Where is the current LLC compaired to the NHC track forecast? Is it north or south? Is the current LLC north or south of the models?

Data please.

[dhweather]

Well if it won't reach the US then why are all the modles shifting west and now look at the NHC track forcast. What now Mr. Pro met.? Is climo going to save us again???

If you can't be courteous and show some respect, then you need to go somewhere else.

[Air Force Met]

Well if it won't reach the US then why are all the modles shifting west and now look at the NHC track forcast. What now Mr. Pro met.? Is climo going to save us again???

If you can't be courteous and show some respect, then you need to go somewhere else.

Don't worry about it...all will become very obvious over the next couple of days...and he will either apologize or disappear.

[Air Force Met]

Well if it won't reach the US then why are all the modles shifting west and now look at the NHC track forcast. What now Mr. Pro met.? Is climo going to save us again???

Hey...the NEW NHC forecast track is out and it has shifted about 600 MILES to the right on the day 5 position....which takes it EAST of Bermuda.

Any comments?

[ThunderMate]

ok then...im sorry for what i said but why do you think TD 9 won't make it past at least the islands.?

[Stratosphere747]

Did'nt take long for this to become a "fish" storm....

[Steve H.]

But the driver here is the ULL to the north of TD #9. The TD is going toward the weakness in the ridge that is being caused by the ULL. The ULL is almost due north of TD #9. The ULL is digging south due to Harvey moving NE. TD #9 is not going to get pulled out to sea (to the NE) by the ULL - its too far underneath at this point. But it will be should be pulled too far north to make the trek across the pond. It may well flounder for awhile (no pun intended) due to some weak steering currents. The one to watch for long tracking may be the wave exiting the African coast as we speak. Still we can't completely write off TD #9, as it may get steered westward at some point. No strong ridging is anticipated in the central or western Atlantic though, so odds are it won't fo west for long even if it does develop further. Cheers!

[Steve H.]

But the driver here is the ULL to the north of TD #9. The TD is going toward the weakness in the ridge that is being caused by the ULL. The ULL is almost due north of TD #9. The ULL is digging south due to Harvey moving NE. TD #9 is not going to get pulled out to sea (to the NE) by the ULL - its too far underneath at this point. But it will be should be pulled too far north to make the trek across the pond. It may well flounder for awhile (no pun intended) due to some weak steering currents. The one to watch for long tracking may be the wave exiting the African coast as we speak. Still we can't completely write off TD #9, as it may get steered westward at some point. No strong ridging is anticipated in the central or western Atlantic though, so odds are it won't fo west for long even if it does develop further. Cheers!

[DESTRUCTION5]

she looks like she is hetting sheared to hell but that LLC still looks to have a good spin to me Moving WNW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Air Force Met]

ok then...im sorry for what i said but why do you think TD 9 won't make it past at least the islands.?

Have you seen the lastest track? Also...Climo (yes, that word) shows that storms at this latitude don't even make it to the islands.

So no...no islands...no mainland.

[dwg71]

It has been a classic fish from day one, the funniest thing is that 1 out of 5 on landfall poll voted GOM, which wasnt even mentioned as a possibility by Pro Met forecast, climatology, computer models, or NHC discussions, the votes were baseless in my opinion.

[Thunder44]

The theme for this storm today is weakening and going out to sea. Yesterday it was strenghtening and hitting the east coast. Let's see what theme tomorrow will bring.