TD 9 Split

[stormernie]

TD9 has split off with the LLC moving NW and the apparent MLC moving more toward the west. There is still a chance that we may have a new LLC form a little further south. However, at this time the chances are greater that this system is done.

Comments welcome

[ThunderMate]

TD9 will not go out to sea. It will continue WNW towards the US coastline.

[deltadog03]

i think your right...If that happens i would tend to think we should have one further south with the convection...

[skysummit]

TD9 has split off with the LLC moving NW and the apparent MLC moving more toward the west. There is still a chance that we may have a new LLC form a little further south. However, at this time the chances are greater that this system is done.

Comments welcome

You are kidding with this comment right?

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont think he is kidding. It looks to be disorganizing and if it continues we can have an open wave before long.

<RICKY>

[skysummit]

Yea, it's more disorganized than yesterday, this will happen. I do think it's far from done. We have to expect these fluctuations in a developing system. It may even get into an open wave again, but down the line a bit it'll regenerate.....far from done.

[deltadog03]

i still think the LLC to the NW of the blob of storms will die and a new one will develop underneath those Storms...imo

[dixiebreeze]

The wave right behind #9 looks very, very healthy this morning.

[txwatcher91]

i still think the LLC to the NW of the blob of storms will die and a new one will develop underneath those Storms...imo

I think this is possible that something like that might happen. Or the wave behind it might form as it looks very healthy.

[WeatherEmperor]

The wave right behind #9 looks very, very healthy this morning.

yes it does. wow TD9 is in some trouble and so we just jump to the one behind it. lol. I gotta admit its lookin pretty good. What are this one's chances?

<RICKY>

[skysummit]

Geez....it looks a LOT worse than what I thought. I'll take back my comments earlier in this thread for now. I agree it's possible a new center may form under that burst of storms, but it'll probably be slow.

[Air Force Met]

TD9 has split off with the LLC moving NW and the apparent MLC moving more toward the west. There is still a chance that we may have a new LLC form a little further south. However, at this time the chances are greater that this system is done.

Comments welcome

I don't think we'll see a new LLC...the existing one is fairly well established. VIS images show it does have a more northerly component than forecast.

[WeatherEmperor]

TD9 has split off with the LLC moving NW and the apparent MLC moving more toward the west. There is still a chance that we may have a new LLC form a little further south. However, at this time the chances are greater that this system is done.

Comments welcome

I don't think we'll see a new LLC...the existing one is fairly well established. VIS images show it does have a more northerly component than forecast.

Do you think it will end up a fish?

<RICKY>

[Air Force Met]

TD9 will not go out to sea. It will continue WNW towards the US coastline.

Climo is against that scenario. The system is already past 16N. Looking back in time, only one storm in history has ever been in that location (within 120NM of it) and made landfall on the US coast....a storm in 1893.

So...unless it relocates well to the south...climo is very much against this system reaching the US. The models which were sending it back west and WNW did so when it was initialized as moving at 280 or so and a lot further south. As it stands now...it is already well north of the forecasts and moving to the right of them. So...the forecast tracks are already busted.

[cycloneye]

As I said in another thread this is very close to being an open wave if it is one already.

[wxwatcher91]

can someone post a visual because I think mine is pretty off lol but here is what I see...

[Air Force Met]

Do you think it will end up a fish?

<RICKY>

Yes I do. Even if I had not looked at any models...I would call it a fish. Why? Climo. Storms that are that far east and already at 16N don't make it to the US....one in the last 150 years. It would take an extra-ordinary set of events to drive it back west.

Of course...given that it's naked now...it may not last long.

[jax]

Do you think it will end up a fish?

<RICKY>

Yes I do. Even if I had not looked at any models...I would call it a fish. Why? Climo. Storms that are that far east and already at 16N don't make it to the US....one in the last 150 years. It would take an extra-ordinary set of events to drive it back west.

Of course...given that it's naked now...it may not last long.

climo also says we won't have 3 named storms by this point in the
season... Climo isn't very reliable this year...

[Air Force Met]

can someone post a visual because I think mine is pretty off lol but here is what I see...

I don't think there is a new LLC forming on the south side. The vis loops show the old LLC is pretty established and tight. The only time new LLC's form is when there is a broad area of low pressure and then they usually form on the north side. TD 9 has a good circulation...but it is moving more northerly than forecast and into drier air and also cooler SST's. Gonna be difficult to get a good ball of convection back.

[vbhoutex]

Wxwatcher91 I only see one CC using the floater and it is the one you label old llcc. I see no indications of another one forming at this time at ML or LL.

AFM's post pretty much says it all right now. Obviously things could change, but I am not going to hold my breath. TD#9 is moving into somewhat hostile territory and doesn't look to me like it has its' wagons circled very tightly to defend itself.